Tanz said tunneling, not me :<

Gah, let's just say that post was directed to both of you. You posted a real lot in the last hour :p

My post was directed mainly at how OP was confusing and made me suspect you and pieguy for possible fake claim.


Anyways, I'm curious on people saying DD flip flop, which posts are you guys talking about?

Page 19. Read his posts from there and then concentrate on the previous ones. He says the NH's plan is anti-town, he didn't even do the same when he put his doubts in it for the first time (in the first posts after NH proposed his tactic). He just suddenly realized NH's tactic is anti-town, pretty convenient I must say. Pushing him (NH) like this is also one of the reasons he got lynched D1.

Also I'm going to sleep now (skipped sleeping tonight), won't be around for some hours.

...dafuq
0.0

okay I have no idea what to even think anymore @_@ Given a Ninja, I always thought a Watcher was plausible (although fartownik might be mafia still)

DakeDekaane wrote:

Even in the worst case, we'll end 4:3, yes, LyLo, but we'll have 100% chance of hitting scum, as scummy people will clearly stand out, even find a liar in the PRs, if there is any.

where'd you get that from? o.o mafia could still be hiding in PRs or we could mislynch a townie.

We need to hurry up and do something instead of arguing over anything Sakura did w/ the setup. DakeDekaane blamed inactivity the first time I accused him which is a pretty common mafia excuse from what I can remember (hiding behind inactivity, etc.) Also, voting no-lynch is never a good idea unless it's MyLo. JInxy still hasn't been posting very much, which is the same as I remember him always doing as mafia. There hasn't really been very much new information.

Fixed Quote tags, you can always ask me to fix tags for you
-Sakura

EBWOP: dafuq, what happened to my quote o.o

DakeDekaane wrote:

Even in the worst case, we'll end 4:3, yes, LyLo, but we'll have 100% chance of hitting scum, as scummy people will clearly stand out, even find a liar in the PRs, if there is any.

I've stated my view on the suspects and the possible scenarios depending on what Dake flips. Nothing more to add from here. The non-voters should clarify their suspects and votes right now, otherwise we will stay like this with days of inactivity until the deadline. I really hate such boring mafia parts.

I finally found his flip flop. p/2396642/ (Thanks Jinxy)

Still not entirely sure about DD.

DD, why did you say he was town first and then anti town later?

Internet went off some tiime ;~;

Elaborating as you requested:

Suppose we have 4 town and 3 scum, in three scenarios RB shot a townie:

Scenario 1: Scum hit a confirmed town.
1 confirmed (either Rantai/RB)
2 PR (pieguy/fart)
4 non-PR (Haneii/Jinxy/Irre/DD/Tanz)
I'm assuming Tanz is town and the two somehow confirmed too, that left us 3 non-PR (I want to believe so), yes I threw the WIFOM thing, but I'm believing too much in them. Depending on who gets shot, it's easy to lynch by PoE, even if scum is in the 2 somehow unconfirmed PR.

Scenario 2: Scum hit pieguy/fartownik.
2 confirmed (either Rantai/RB)
1 PR (pieguy/fart)
4 non-PR (Haneii/Jinxy/Irre/DD/Tanz)
The less likely as scum would want to make WIFOM. But basically the same as above,

Scenario 3: Scum hit a vanilla:
2 confirmed (either Rantai/RB):
2 PR (pieguy/fart):
3 non-PR (Haneii/Jinxy/Irre/DD/Tanz)
We have scum in PR as it'd be too perfect that the three remaining non-PR are scum together. We'd pick either pieguy/fart looking at their behaviour. Take in mind that if pieguy is scum, fart is scum.

Why I said 100%? Scum needs to convince 1 more people (or 2 in case Traitor isn't recruited). We'll just have to look for the voting pattern.

But that's only if we are 4:3 in D3.

About my flip-flop thingy, I explained a bit below that: p/2397890

@Dake: concentrate more on the potential targets for the lynch today instead of writing up the possible scenarios of tommorrow. We must focus on minimalizing the possibility of lynching scum today and what you're doing is not helpful at the moment. What are your main scumspects? Also, what do you think about Irre and JInxy?

So we're just going to assume that the claimed PR are town? No.

The scum will almost definitely hit RB or I because we're confirmed. If they don't then they're shooting themselves in the foot (which is fine by me).

About you PR's; I'd rather RB didn't shoot anyone tonight, pieguy should jail one of us (RB/me) fart, watch one of us (pie, me or RB).

Vote: DD

I've got nothing else to work with.

Fine I won't shoot. I'll listen to you this time since I didn't in D1. I don't want to be roasted beef for D3

not shooting is better:
currently 3:6 -> mislynch -> 3:5 -> NK -> 3:4 = LyLo
if you shoot and miss it's 3:3 and we lose ><
even if we lynch mafia, it'd be better to not shoot since it'll be the same thing with one less mafia and one less townie, either way shooting wrong after any mislynch will be a loss.

hm, I am still unsure about DD.

dammit, jinxy is just one hour away from being prodable ;_; I would've liked him to elaborate on the situation, since he didn't post that much this day.

haneii also didn't post in nearly 2 days, but I think she is town, so no prodding measures for now.

and irre... well I don't think we can prod/pressure him, since he doesn't play anymore.

so effectively we can't get any information out of anyone who didn't already explained himself. I will hold back my vote for now (sorry fart :/), as I think that outright killing DD now is a bad idea.

also yea, RB shouldn't shoot. maybe if we lynch scum, but even then probably not.

Tanzklaue wrote:

so effectively we can't get any information out of anyone who didn't already explained himself. I will hold back my vote for now (sorry fart :/), as I think that outright killing DD now is a bad idea.

Then please elaborate. Why not DD? Who else if not him? Just provide something. The lynch is always an open case until the hammer, even with 3 votes on the suspect. If you have some good notices then elaborate.

we are 9 people. it takes 5 to lynch.

voting DD now would make him L-1, and I don't think we should lynch him yet, as long as we still have over 3 days until the deadline. 3 days in which irre maybe gets replaced and we finally can get something out of him that makes sense. 3 days in which someone might slip. 3 days to discuss theories, to find out more. it wouldn't benefit town if we would let this time slip by unused.

I think it would be nice to hear explained thoughts from everyone, and how they think about lynching DD preemptively, stuff like that. voting DD doesn't make sense, because I don't think that even more pressure on him would lead to anything productive from his side.

we still can lynch DD later if nobody else is as suspicios as him. but for the moment, I think we should at least not end the day right now.

that's a good idea, I'm perfectly fine with that I just hope it doesn't become inactive...
I definitely think we should wait for Irre to be replaced, cause that'll be one extra piece of information we can get as opposed to ending day now. the only problem is, at this rate replacing Irre might be impossible ><

I don't get the DD scenario honestly, that seems to be running on the assumption that we No Lynch today and RB misfires, which will bring us to lylo tomorrow, and we'd hit the same thing if we mislynch and RB doesn't fire.

Also, assuming we lynch scum, it goes to 2:6, NK brings it to 2:5, and a misfire (71%) drops it to 2:4 which is mylo and effectively 2:3 lylo since the best course of action is no-lynch. Yeah, not shooting tonight seems good.

Please let me know if you see any mistakes

CalignoBot replaces Irreversible, effective immediately

Welcome.

Greetings.

I will read up at some point later today. My brain isn't in thinking mode for the day yet.

I've skimmed a bit of the past page before I went to sleep last night and it looks like the situation's a bit involved. If someone could summarize what that situation is right now, it would help my reread.

We all claimed our roles in D1. From alive, we have: 2 confirmed Townies (Raging Bull as Vigilante and Rantai as Mason), 2 claimed, not-yet confirmed PRs (me as Watcher and pieguy as Jailkeeper) plus 5 unconfirmed Vanilla Townies (JInxyjem, Haneii, DakeDekaane, Tanzklaue, you).

Day1's lynch was a Vanilla Townie - NoHitter whom came up with the plan of massclaiming. N1 RB used his Vigilante and missed, killing another Vanilla Townie - rEdo. There was also a third kill from the Mafia themselves, a Mason + Cop (a confirmed Townie) - BRBP.

We're struggling about today's lynch at the moment, leaning for DakeDekaane with 3 votes on him already (it takes 5 vote to hammer and end the day). We were waiting for Irreversible's replacement before hammering though, and here you are, the fifth element ( ). Reading all the pages is a must if you want to catch up with the game, we will give you some time for that. Please provide your read on the situation when you're done.

EBWOP: The current count of alignments is: 3 Mafia (including 1 Traitor) and 6 Townies (including 2 100% confirmed Townies).

Excellent. That helps me quite a bit, actually. There's a few notes I have just from that information before I start reading. I have no idea at this point if they were already discussed or not, so bear with me.

1. PR lynch today is bad for obvious reasons. If this HAS been discussed, the first person to bring this up gets townpoints from me.

2. Since there was no extra information given about the Watcher or Jailkeeper, I'm assuming that the former saw nothing (and it's already obvious the jailkeeper didn't protect anyone). I'm going to think about this while I read; I have a few ideas on how to go about this N2, but this relies a lot on my own reads, so I won't go into it quite yet.

3. I would roughly estimate that one unproven PR is town and the other is scum. I can see both of them being town, but I don't see both of them being scum as very likely.

Alright, going to read up. I'll give my updated thoughts when I'm finished.

In the meantime, there's a few hours less than 3 days until deadline (2 days 20 hours to be exact) if you need i can extend the deadline by 24 hours to give you time to catch up

That shouldn't be necessary; I'm already halfway through. Chances are I'll be fully caught up within the next 1-2 hours.

Okay, going to take a break for a little bit now that I'm done with reading Day 1.

Here are my current reads:

fartownik and pieguy1372 are both probably town. I can't really choose one that's more likely to be scum if there is one between them: fartownik's claim is the single safest one (information roles in general are the safest in this set-up; they literally cannot be confirmed town or scum while alive), while pieguy made scummier stances in day 1.

I disapprove of the current wagon right now.

Haneii is my first choice for scum. Jinxy is my second choice for scum. Tanzklaue is almost certainly town.

I'll get more into these when I have read the rest, and a vote will accompany it. The one thing I've seen held against Dake in day 1 is actually looking more town to me. Yes, he flipped, but the flip is actually town-motivated rather than scum-motivated.

More soon.

Day 1 notes:

There's a big problem with NoHitter's version of the plan which makes Jinxy's posts about the advantages useless: Mafia can falsely claim PRs with actually pretty low risk. They know exactly how many PRs the town have, so they just falsely claim how many the town don't have so that it adds up to five. There's virtually no risk in that, and in fact only gives the mafia any kind of risk when the PRs have to be named. Not only that, but it leaves the amount of PRs completely ambiguous for town. Overall, I think this play benefited scum far more than it did town. If the mafia ended up choosing daychat, it would be even easier to manipulate this to their own ends.

Tanzklaue gets townpoints for pointing this logic train out very early. It would have been very easy for scum to go along with this, but he actively went against it.

The other main point given for this massclaim is that scum will be a target after all the PRs die. This is a completely void point, since scum wouldn't dare put the amount of claims above five. No matter how many PRs end up dying, the others are no more or less confirmed than before by that alone.

Okay, now I see that the masons weren't included in the PR list. This changes things in my head quite a bit. Since now I know that mafia didn't inflate the amount of PRs to five like I had thought, I'm starting to feel that every PR is genuine.

NoHitter's plan of going for suspicious claims, then going among the non-PRs is... iffy. It's a lot more prudent to confirm as many of the PRs as possible (and/or catch scum in a lie) while lynching among the townies. There's really no reason to go for PRs first, ESPECIALLY doubles. Doubles should definitely wait until later in the game except for mason pairs.

Sadly, NoHitter and fartonik are completely correct at the bottom of page seven. While the plan itself was completely suboptimal, the worst possible scenario is to stop it halfway through.

BRBP's avatar scared the hell out of me.

I'm not really liking Haneii. His posts have been pretty off up to where I'm at; page 13. His push on Tanzklaue was rather meh and his current push on Hika is also pretty meh. Him stating that everyone else that isn't confirmed town or Tanz/NH as null is really meh too.

Jinxy is starting to ping to me as well.

The Jailkeeper claim is really town.

DakeDekaane's post trying to put suspicion on Hika for the JK claim is pinging me.

pieguy1372 trying to guess at BRBP's role in his catch-up post is giving me red flags. Scum are much more interested in knowing what BRBP's role is. I'm still leaning town on this slot, but that can easily change if this slot pings me any more.

Okay, from what I can tell, DakeDekaane is getting fire on page 20 for saying that BRBP shouldn't claim his role. Dake's stance on that is actually the most town one. Like I said above, scum are more interested in knowing BRBP's role right away: Scum have an unknown that could easily get them caught no matter what they try, while town would want it hidden because that's information that's virtually useless to them.

---

Everything below the line is day 2 stuff.

fartownik claiming a no-result N1 is HUGE. I'll get into this more in my next post after I've finished my thoughts. I agree that jailing BRBP was the most optimal play, but what ended up happening is definitely not a bad alternative.

I'm honestly not getting a whole lot reads-wise from the Day 2 stuff. What I said in my last post still applies. I'm going to do some thinking now.

[b:08852]Vote: Haneii[/b:08852]

Please bear with my chain-posting, I believe it's more readable this way.

Let's try that again.

Vote: Haneii

Hopefully it takes this time.

This post is my suggested plan of attack for night choices. I promise I will stop posting for a bit after this and let other people start having posts on this page.

We have prime opportunities to get information right now. Assuming that both PRs are town, which I believe is the case, then we are in great shape. This is the best option for N2:

fartownik watches one confirmed town (mason), while pieguy1372 jails the vigilante. Most likely, the watched target is going to die.

There's several possibilities for mason death:

If we lynch scum today and fartownik gets a tangible result, the result is lynched. Either we lynch scum, or we lynch town and fartownik gets vigged that night (either dying or being confirmed bulletproof or JOAT). Either way, we get a scum.

If we lynch scum today and fartownik gets no result: Still a 2v5 endgame, which is pretty nice. We don't have a whole lot of information from this alone, but my suggested plan for N3 still works.

If we lynch town today and fartownik gets a tangible result, then it's a gamble. We can either lynch one of fartownik and his target (50-50 change) or one of the people that aren't fartownik and his target (also a 50-50 chance). Either way, it gets kind of rough here.

If we lynch town today and fartownik gets no result: I'll be honest; this is a really bad situation. A town win from here would be really impressive.

This is listed from best to worst.

I won't go into what happens if someone besides the watched target dies. There's so many possibilities that it's completely useless trying to analyze it before it happens. Plus, we still have two confimred town at this point. Even if we end up lynching town, we are still more likely to lynch scum than town the following days. Watcher on jailkeeper and jailkeeper targetting a townie without revealing who works well here.

---

Either way, assuming that we reach N3 and the mason dies N2, the only real thing both PRs should do is to target the vigilante.

If we follow this plan, then we will have at least one confirmed town in D4. The only way we won't is if, again, both unproven PRs are scum, in which case we just win the game (since there would only be two scum left).

I fully recommend we keep the vigilante alive as long as possible instead of the mason. Keeping our options open is always a plus.

Good piece of content, Caligno. Good replacement for Irreversible.

CalignoBot wrote:

fartownik watches one confirmed town (mason), while pieguy1372 jails the vigilante. Most likely, the watched target is going to die.

Do you really think Mafia would just go over Rantai if they knew I'm currently watching him? That'd be a direct expose of scum, you know. If they know I'm going to Watch Rantai they will probably just change the target to avoid getting caught (unless I'm missing something?). If this is done then me or pieguy would most likely be nightkilled as we are the remaining PRs without any protection.

I might not have explained well enough why that is the most likely result. I think I explained my whole thought process behind that, albeit in a somewhat messy way, but I can explain that part of it in another post if it's still confusing.

Will be unavailable for approximately 14hours

CalignoBot wrote:

I might not have explained well enough why that is the most likely result. I think I explained my whole thought process behind that, albeit in a somewhat messy way, but I can explain that part of it in another post if it's still confusing.

Well, it'd be nice if you elaborated on this. Why would scum risk getting caught (or more like, conciously going into a trap) by killing a target aimed by Watcher?

fartownik wrote:

CalignoBot wrote:

I might not have explained well enough why that is the most likely result. I think I explained my whole thought process behind that, albeit in a somewhat messy way, but I can explain that part of it in another post if it's still confusing.

Well, it'd be nice if you elaborated on this. Why would scum risk getting caught (or more like, conciously going into a trap) by killing a target aimed by Watcher?

Rantai wrote:

The scum will almost definitely hit RB or I because we're confirmed. If they don't then they're shooting themselves in the foot (which is fine by me).

I assume it's because if they shoot you or pieguy (or a VT if they're retarded) instead, then we'll still have 2 alive confirmed-towns which significantly pushes the odds into our favour.

But, are those 'odds into Town favor' worth more than still having all Mafia hidden? (I mean for scum of course)

There's several possible reasons why scum would go for the mason anyway.

1. If they have a ninja; they can kill off a confirmed town while giving no concrete information in return.
2. If fartownik is scum, he can just make up whatever result he wants. This is the other possibility that makes this not concrete.
3. If neither of the above are true, then the other options aren't that great either:

a. fartownik is the target of the nightkill; worst possible target, as now pieguy is confirmed town. Even if we used up our mislynch today, there's 3 confirmed town and 4 unconfirmed town, 3 of which are scum. That's giving town an unnecessary advantage.

b. pieguy dying reduces options. Keeping both unconfirmed PRs alive helps scum because the possibility of both being scum is a really powerful advantage for them to keep around. If town suddenly knows for a fact that there are a minimum of two mafia in the VT pile, then there's no inherent risk of lynching from the VT pile twice since there's not a chance that there's only one scum in that pile (which having both PRs alive would prevent). It would have the same type of situation as both PRs being alive where there would be a choice to go for the PR or VT, but it happens where there's more information present.

c1. Shooting one of the VTs; both PRs are town: This is extremely risky, especially if both of the PRs are town. The next night, the Jailkeeper can choose a target of his choice (without making note of it beforehand in thread) and the Watcher targets one of the other PRs in the same way (also without making note of it beforehand). Suddenly, in this situation, the scum have to rely on dumb luck for a kill to go through without the person committing it getting caught. There's a 50% chance the kill will just be straight-up blocked (4 VTs going into night, 3 VTs going into day, 2 VTs going into night), and even then there's a 33% chance of the Watcher catching that scum anyways unless there's a ninja. Whether one or both are scum is moot; it's a very risky situation to get into.

c2. Shooting one of the VTs; both PRs are scum: Honestly, this really isn't much different than if they shot the mason. The only real change is that one of the confirmed town dies a day later. Mafia literally cannot allow BOTH the vigilante and mason to get to day 4 (assuming 2 deaths a day cicle, this is when there's 5 people left). That is literally just making the game difficult for yourself needlessly.

However, I don't think it's overly likely that both PRs are scum. Just having the game play out the way it did with a farto-pieguy-? scumteam is a huge enough risk that I don't think it would've been even attempted by very many people. Scum (non-PR group) really don't have any good options if they don't have a ninja.

Please let me know if you see any mistakes