foulcoon wrote:
/in
because i never play mini games
forum
Two-for-one Mini Mafia (Mafia Win!)
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in
/in since I'm just waiting for townie/mafia/independent to win for Paska :<
/in
Topic Starter
Signups are now closed, and roles are going out.
Expect an odd little game.
Expect an odd little game.
Topic Starter
All roles have been sent out.
With that, I will start the day now. Deadline is in 3.5 days.
With 6 alive, it's 4 to lynch.
With that, I will start the day now. Deadline is in 3.5 days.
With 6 alive, it's 4 to lynch.
/confirm
wanna massclaim?
/confirm
Why cross it out? o.o//
Why cross it out? o.o//
because it's anti-fun. I don't mind doing it if you guys want to do this and I'll suggest it anyway if the game is getting boring.
confirm because the topic is somewhat unclear.
Confirming anyway.
Vote: pieguy.
Made an effort to question my post, but nothing more came through. Time zone isn't also an issue too. Why don't you try harder?
Made an effort to question my post, but nothing more came through. Time zone isn't also an issue too. Why don't you try harder?
Confirmed.
vote: bmin
Sorry, I'm quite busy (and tired) recently due to a bunch of stuff going on 
I agree using a roleclaim would make it less fun but anything that gives us more information is good, and the only way to really solve these mini games is by mass roleclaiming early on (since there's not really much other information).
I agree using a roleclaim would make it less fun but anything that gives us more information is good, and the only way to really solve these mini games is by mass roleclaiming early on (since there's not really much other information).
One thing I'm worried with is that we could be giving mafia an information away for who to role block. We can't effectively use it to scum hunt since we can't really get much info from the role itself unlike PyP games.
I'm somewhat considering a No Lynch for the night, because we may have a setup of 2:4 (Two-for-one?) even though it's unlikely.
I'm somewhat considering a No Lynch for the night, because we may have a setup of 2:4 (Two-for-one?) even though it's unlikely.
Hmm you bring up a good point;
Let's assume a 1 v 5
- No lynch --> NK --> 1 v 4 --> mislynch --> NK --> 1 v 2 --> ly-lo
- Mislynch --> NK --> 1 v 3 --> ly-lo --> No lynch --> 1 v 2 --> ly-lo
Same outcome however there is a greater chance of informative towns to do their thing with no lynch but also a lost opportunity to kill a scum. I think a no lynch is slightly better than a 5/6 chance of mislynch though.
Let's assume 2 v 4
- No lynch --> NK --> 2 v 3 --> ly-lo
- 2 v 4 --> ly-lo
It's already ly-lo in this situation so a no lynch is also favoured.
This isn't including any vig shots, doctor roles, serial killers etc etc and assuming worst case scenario.
But as it stands our best chance is a no lynch right now and hope that we have more information tomorrow.
Let's assume a 1 v 5
- No lynch --> NK --> 1 v 4 --> mislynch --> NK --> 1 v 2 --> ly-lo
- Mislynch --> NK --> 1 v 3 --> ly-lo --> No lynch --> 1 v 2 --> ly-lo
Same outcome however there is a greater chance of informative towns to do their thing with no lynch but also a lost opportunity to kill a scum. I think a no lynch is slightly better than a 5/6 chance of mislynch though.
Let's assume 2 v 4
- No lynch --> NK --> 2 v 3 --> ly-lo
- 2 v 4 --> ly-lo
It's already ly-lo in this situation so a no lynch is also favoured.
This isn't including any vig shots, doctor roles, serial killers etc etc and assuming worst case scenario.
But as it stands our best chance is a no lynch right now and hope that we have more information tomorrow.
Oh and regarding mass claiming, if it is 2 v 4, and we get a counterclaim on someone then we're in a whole lot of trouble because it could go both ways (ie mafia gambit to get the real role lynched or real role legitimately counter claiming) which would bring us to a lynch based on pure luck with the mislynch meaning game over (unless we get really lucky on a doc protect or something) and a successful lynch bringing us to a 1v3 ly-lo (unless doc protect).
Imo not worth it without any information at all.
Imo not worth it without any information at all.
No lynch is definitely the best idea IMO.
If someone counterclaims we could always no lynch and then try to lynch the mafia the next day, and 1/2 is better than 1/3... Also, we don't even know if there is a roleblocker @ bmin, but given LS there might be one
I guess that perhaps a massclaim might not be the best idea at this point. With that said, vote KRZY post please
If someone counterclaims we could always no lynch and then try to lynch the mafia the next day, and 1/2 is better than 1/3... Also, we don't even know if there is a roleblocker @ bmin, but given LS there might be one
I guess that perhaps a massclaim might not be the best idea at this point. With that said, vote KRZY post please
It is stupid to not assume there would be a role blocker. The new rule just screams for one.
If we are going to favour for more chance for the informative role to find out, a lynch would be better since having a mislynch would increase the odd.
odds for finding scum if we mislynch: 1/4 for N1, 1/3 for N2
odds for finding scum if we don't lynch: 1/5 for N1, 1/3 for N2
Ofcourse, the odds of mafia hitting an important role would also increase, but we would have to take a chance eventually.
If we are going to favour for more chance for the informative role to find out, a lynch would be better since having a mislynch would increase the odd.
odds for finding scum if we mislynch: 1/4 for N1, 1/3 for N2
odds for finding scum if we don't lynch: 1/5 for N1, 1/3 for N2
Ofcourse, the odds of mafia hitting an important role would also increase, but we would have to take a chance eventually.
..Uh, 1/3 for N2 if we don't lynch? Shouldn't that be 1/4?
Unless there's a reason behind that.
Unless there's a reason behind that.
I just spent a bit of time with excel because I was bored. http://puu.sh/8tun - Red indicates dead cop, blue indicates successful scum check.
Do note that it is huge (1000 cells). It takes into account a doctor, 1 cop, 1 roleblocker-mafia and 3 towns (assumed vanilla) but only goes up D2. It also assumes that the mafia will not roleblock and kill the same person.
To summarise;
No lynch:
- 14.4% chance to get a scum result without dying or being blocked (not on sheet, feel free to dispute if I am wrong)
- 16% chance to die (not on sheet, feel free to dispute)
Mislynch (aggregate);
-17.71% chance to die
- 6.34% of getting scum hit without being killed (from lynch and NK combined) or roleblocked.
If you do bother with the spreadsheet fiddle around with the numbers to get the individual scenario %'s but that's basically the baseline here.
Do note that it is huge (1000 cells). It takes into account a doctor, 1 cop, 1 roleblocker-mafia and 3 towns (assumed vanilla) but only goes up D2. It also assumes that the mafia will not roleblock and kill the same person.
To summarise;
No lynch:
- 14.4% chance to get a scum result without dying or being blocked (not on sheet, feel free to dispute if I am wrong)
- 16% chance to die (not on sheet, feel free to dispute)
Mislynch (aggregate);
-17.71% chance to die
- 6.34% of getting scum hit without being killed (from lynch and NK combined) or roleblocked.
If you do bother with the spreadsheet fiddle around with the numbers to get the individual scenario %'s but that's basically the baseline here.
Er, successful check*
I'll review it quickly just in case I screwed something up badly.
Edit: Mistake with some doctor coefficients, changed - http://puu.sh/8ty6
Amendments (mislynch)
Cop death chance: 33.33%
Scum check chance: 10.5%
That looks much better.
I'll review it quickly just in case I screwed something up badly.
Edit: Mistake with some doctor coefficients, changed - http://puu.sh/8ty6
Amendments (mislynch)
Cop death chance: 33.33%
Scum check chance: 10.5%
That looks much better.
confirmed
that's all you have to say @ KRZY? o_o
Oh my god @ Rantai. Assuming there is a cop, IMO a no lynch with no roleclaims would be far better than the other options. We'd have two possibilites to hit mafia: the N1 check and the D2 lynch (if we don't find one we just lynch randomly) compared to just one for lynching today. Also, now that you mention that bmin11 I agree there probably is one.
Overall, the odds would be 2/5 + 3/5*2/5 = 10/25+6/25 = 16/25 (!)
The problem is we don't even know if there is a cop, since we'll have no roleclaims.
Oh my god @ Rantai. Assuming there is a cop, IMO a no lynch with no roleclaims would be far better than the other options. We'd have two possibilites to hit mafia: the N1 check and the D2 lynch (if we don't find one we just lynch randomly) compared to just one for lynching today. Also, now that you mention that bmin11 I agree there probably is one.
Overall, the odds would be 2/5 + 3/5*2/5 = 10/25+6/25 = 16/25 (!)
The problem is we don't even know if there is a cop, since we'll have no roleclaims.
To be honest, we're better off not having anyone claim (especially today) to prevent mishaps of any kind.
Also, Rantai: How do you know there's a cop?
Also, Rantai: How do you know there's a cop?
It doesn't necessarily has to be a cop. We are assuming there would be some aux roles for town since there is a roleblocker on mafia side (what would be the point of this game if there wasn't any roleblocker?)
It's an assumption. If we don't have a cop then I'd lean towards a lynch because we're not going to have much information gathering for the night. In that situation we'll need every opportunity to lynch as we can get.Swiftwolf Yellowtail wrote:
To be honest, we're better off not having anyone claim (especially today) to prevent mishaps of any kind.
Also, Rantai: How do you know there's a cop?
*But I think it's at least reasonable to assume we have a cop.
Actually, if there is no cop, no lynch is better anyway because it improves our odds of lynching a mafia. It's 2/5 instead of 2/6 = 1/3. It also allows a night just in case a town action happens that helps us find a mafia.
Ahh true. We only have 6 players so we can only afford a single mislynch too.
So either way a no lynch stands better.
Vote: No lynch
So either way a no lynch stands better.
Vote: No lynch
Vote: No Lynch
Kinda hate disclosing this issue with only half of the player discussing this, but I don't see a better option at the moment
Kinda hate disclosing this issue with only half of the player discussing this, but I don't see a better option at the moment
vote: No Lynch
can't think of any better options
can't think of any better options
Guess I should...
Vote: No Lynch
Vote: No Lynch
Sorry was too absorbed in the other Mafia game.
Looks like I don't have much of a role to play but to wait and see what happens N1.
Vote: No lynch
Looks like I don't have much of a role to play but to wait and see what happens N1.
Vote: No lynch
So ya ummm...... I guess LS is busy playing Skyrim?
Dunno. Might be a WWG moment or something. >_>
Is Skyrim good
All my friends on Steam are constantly playing it
All my friends on Steam are constantly playing it
I'm told it is good...
Once Ifail finish my exams this week I think I'm going to get Oblivion then Skyrim.
It's nice to see a well hyped up game not completely crap out for once.
Once I
It's nice to see a well hyped up game not completely crap out for once.
just skip oblivion and get skyrim IMO
also what is the hold up? Sorry I haven't really been posting but damn. 5/6 voting No-lynch.
also what is the hold up? Sorry I haven't really been posting but damn. 5/6 voting No-lynch.