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Two-for-one Mini Mafia (Mafia Win!)

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Total Posts
153
Topic Starter
LadySuburu
This was going to be the game where it was two differing mafia games that could interact with each other, but it isn't.

Instead, this is a somewhat standard mafia game, with an unfitting name. New rules at #5, 8 on the rules.

Alive:

1. Rantai
3. Swiftwolf Yellowtail
4. KRZY
5. bmin11
6. pieguy1372

Dead:
2. Foulcoon - Doctor (Town) - Killed N1


Replacements:
1.
2.
3.


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.::] Rules [::.
General

1. Unless otherwise stated in your Role PM, this game takes place in this thread only - do not discuss it anywhere else. Doing so will get you modkilled or immediately replaced, depending on the severity of the offence. (This is important for mafia games.)

2. Do not quote any PM, part or whole, you receive from the Mod. This includes fake or erroneous quoting. Breaking this rule will get you modkilled. However, you may claim any role you please, and explain the powers in any way you please.

3. If you believe I've made an error as the mod, send me a PM. Please do not post about such things in the thread. If you have anything else you need me to read or address, post something like this - "Mod: You're the best."

4. A player who is modkilled will lose the game, regardless of whether their team mates eventually win.

5. Day actions are done in the order recieved, regardless of normal priorities. That is, a roleblocker cannot roleblock a doctor during the day if that doctor has already sent in his day protection. (It will go through, but so will the doctor's action.)

Voting, Lynching, Night, and Deaths

6. Any voting action must be bolded - Vote: destructor, etc.

7. You may vote to end the day without a lynch by voting No Lynch.

8. Actions may be queued to be activated at a later time, if you wish to delay the night assuming all actions are in. This is only available for mafia, cult, or Masons, or any other role with night chat (if said roles have a delayable action.). Day actions may not be queued, and actions may not be queued before the night starts.

9. A lynch occurs when a player has an absolute majority of votes on them.

10. At deadline, the player with the most votes is lynched. In the event of a draw, the player who had the most votes before being tied will be lynched.

11. Once a lynch occurs the Day is considered to be over. Please, please, PLEASE do not post again until the next Day begins, especially if you are the player who was just lynched. (I accept talking beforehand as long as I haven't posted the lynch scene yet.)

12. On death, a player's role will be revealed.

13. A modkill may end the day, depending on the host's decision.

14. Once a player is dead, they cannot contribute any more to the game. They are not to post anything. (I'll accept a simple Bah! or Go Town!)

Activity

15. Please treat this game as a commitment.

16. Day one has a length of 5 IRL days. Each consecutive day's deadline is cut short by a day, unless a No Lynch is called for or the host sees signifigant activity. There are only a few reasons why I would extend one (such as replacing players).

17. If a player has not posted in 24 hours, I will prod them if requested to do so. That is, it's up to you to ask me to prod a certain player.

17b. Don't make me prod someone. As in, post once every 24 hours. If you have nothing to say, say "I'm here." I will be much more strict with prods than normal.

18. Prods must be responded to in thread.

19. A player who doesn't respond to their prod will be replaced or modkilled.

20. If you are going to be unable to post for over 24 hours, leave me a note in thread. As long as I am personally given notice, you will not be prodded.

Conduct

21. Be courteous and respectful to your fellow players.

22. Blatantly antisocial and offensive behaviour or personal attacks will be grounds for replacement at my own discretion.

23. Finally, Mafia is for fun, so enjoy yourself.

24. If you've noticed I've missed something, feel free to ask me about it.

25. I reserve the right to change these rules.
Rantai
Yep. Sure.
foulcoon
/in

because i never play mini games
Swiftwolf Yellowtail

foulcoon wrote:

/in

because i never play mini games
KRZY
in
bmin11
/in since I'm just waiting for townie/mafia/independent to win for Paska :<
pieguyn
/in
Topic Starter
LadySuburu
Signups are now closed, and roles are going out.

Expect an odd little game.
Topic Starter
LadySuburu
All roles have been sent out.

With that, I will start the day now. Deadline is in 3.5 days.

With 6 alive, it's 4 to lynch.
bmin11
/confirm

wanna massclaim?
pieguyn
/confirm

Why cross it out? o.o//
bmin11
because it's anti-fun. I don't mind doing it if you guys want to do this and I'll suggest it anyway if the game is getting boring.
foulcoon
confirm because the topic is somewhat unclear.
Rantai
Confirming anyway.
bmin11
Vote: pieguy.
Made an effort to question my post, but nothing more came through. Time zone isn't also an issue too. Why don't you try harder?
Swiftwolf Yellowtail
Confirmed.
foulcoon
vote: bmin
pieguyn
Sorry, I'm quite busy (and tired) recently due to a bunch of stuff going on :?

I agree using a roleclaim would make it less fun but anything that gives us more information is good, and the only way to really solve these mini games is by mass roleclaiming early on (since there's not really much other information).
bmin11
One thing I'm worried with is that we could be giving mafia an information away for who to role block. We can't effectively use it to scum hunt since we can't really get much info from the role itself unlike PyP games.

I'm somewhat considering a No Lynch for the night, because we may have a setup of 2:4 (Two-for-one?) even though it's unlikely.
Rantai
Hmm you bring up a good point;

Let's assume a 1 v 5

- No lynch --> NK --> 1 v 4 --> mislynch --> NK --> 1 v 2 --> ly-lo

- Mislynch --> NK --> 1 v 3 --> ly-lo --> No lynch --> 1 v 2 --> ly-lo

Same outcome however there is a greater chance of informative towns to do their thing with no lynch but also a lost opportunity to kill a scum. I think a no lynch is slightly better than a 5/6 chance of mislynch though.

Let's assume 2 v 4

- No lynch --> NK --> 2 v 3 --> ly-lo
- 2 v 4 --> ly-lo

It's already ly-lo in this situation so a no lynch is also favoured.

This isn't including any vig shots, doctor roles, serial killers etc etc and assuming worst case scenario.

But as it stands our best chance is a no lynch right now and hope that we have more information tomorrow.
Rantai
Oh and regarding mass claiming, if it is 2 v 4, and we get a counterclaim on someone then we're in a whole lot of trouble because it could go both ways (ie mafia gambit to get the real role lynched or real role legitimately counter claiming) which would bring us to a lynch based on pure luck with the mislynch meaning game over (unless we get really lucky on a doc protect or something) and a successful lynch bringing us to a 1v3 ly-lo (unless doc protect).

Imo not worth it without any information at all.
pieguyn
No lynch is definitely the best idea IMO.

If someone counterclaims we could always no lynch and then try to lynch the mafia the next day, and 1/2 is better than 1/3... Also, we don't even know if there is a roleblocker @ bmin, but given LS there might be one :?

I guess that perhaps a massclaim might not be the best idea at this point. With that said, vote KRZY post please
bmin11
It is stupid to not assume there would be a role blocker. The new rule just screams for one.

If we are going to favour for more chance for the informative role to find out, a lynch would be better since having a mislynch would increase the odd.

odds for finding scum if we mislynch: 1/4 for N1, 1/3 for N2
odds for finding scum if we don't lynch: 1/5 for N1, 1/3 for N2


Ofcourse, the odds of mafia hitting an important role would also increase, but we would have to take a chance eventually.
Swiftwolf Yellowtail
..Uh, 1/3 for N2 if we don't lynch? Shouldn't that be 1/4?


Unless there's a reason behind that.
Rantai
I just spent a bit of time with excel because I was bored. http://puu.sh/8tun - Red indicates dead cop, blue indicates successful scum check.

Do note that it is huge (1000 cells). It takes into account a doctor, 1 cop, 1 roleblocker-mafia and 3 towns (assumed vanilla) but only goes up D2. It also assumes that the mafia will not roleblock and kill the same person.

To summarise;

No lynch:

- 14.4% chance to get a scum result without dying or being blocked (not on sheet, feel free to dispute if I am wrong)

- 16% chance to die (not on sheet, feel free to dispute)

Mislynch (aggregate);

-17.71% chance to die

- 6.34% of getting scum hit without being killed (from lynch and NK combined) or roleblocked.

If you do bother with the spreadsheet fiddle around with the numbers to get the individual scenario %'s but that's basically the baseline here.
Rantai
Er, successful check*

I'll review it quickly just in case I screwed something up badly.

Edit: Mistake with some doctor coefficients, changed - http://puu.sh/8ty6

Amendments (mislynch)

Cop death chance: 33.33%

Scum check chance: 10.5%

That looks much better.
KRZY
confirmed
pieguyn
that's all you have to say @ KRZY? o_o

Oh my god @ Rantai. Assuming there is a cop, IMO a no lynch with no roleclaims would be far better than the other options. We'd have two possibilites to hit mafia: the N1 check and the D2 lynch (if we don't find one we just lynch randomly) compared to just one for lynching today. Also, now that you mention that bmin11 I agree there probably is one.

Overall, the odds would be 2/5 + 3/5*2/5 = 10/25+6/25 = 16/25 (!)

The problem is we don't even know if there is a cop, since we'll have no roleclaims.
Swiftwolf Yellowtail
To be honest, we're better off not having anyone claim (especially today) to prevent mishaps of any kind.

Also, Rantai: How do you know there's a cop?
bmin11
It doesn't necessarily has to be a cop. We are assuming there would be some aux roles for town since there is a roleblocker on mafia side (what would be the point of this game if there wasn't any roleblocker?)
Rantai

Swiftwolf Yellowtail wrote:

To be honest, we're better off not having anyone claim (especially today) to prevent mishaps of any kind.

Also, Rantai: How do you know there's a cop?
It's an assumption. If we don't have a cop then I'd lean towards a lynch because we're not going to have much information gathering for the night. In that situation we'll need every opportunity to lynch as we can get.
Rantai
*But I think it's at least reasonable to assume we have a cop.
pieguyn
Actually, if there is no cop, no lynch is better anyway because it improves our odds of lynching a mafia. It's 2/5 instead of 2/6 = 1/3. It also allows a night just in case a town action happens that helps us find a mafia.
Rantai
Ahh true. We only have 6 players so we can only afford a single mislynch too.

So either way a no lynch stands better.

Vote: No lynch
bmin11
Vote: No Lynch
Kinda hate disclosing this issue with only half of the player discussing this, but I don't see a better option at the moment
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