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OT Bingo 2 [OVER; Winner: Meah]

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Blitzfrog
Ok ready now
kai99
i take IB HL Maths and it's a nightmare but i still suck at math.
wtf

is the bingo becoming a math debate?
Blitzfrog
Ok here we go
Binomial Distribution incoming

Before we start here is the quote

Raging Bull wrote:

tbh im more impressed how kai has 19 boxes but no bingo
By this quote I am assuming he means that the Bingo could have occured anytime and playing till 19 boxes



Which equates to

0.16715542522


kai99 wrote:

i take IB HL Maths and it's a nightmare but i still suck at math.
wtf

is the bingo becoming a math debate?
No, mathematicians don't debate
They exchange ideas
And body
And nudes




Abraker I was gonna graph this but I got lazy, can you graph it thx
kai99

Blitzfrog wrote:

I hope you know binomial distribution abraker
Railey2
i want to take a look at this

but


guys pls
kai99
why do i not have a fucking bingo yet am i defying all odds?
i still have tons of blank spaces
Blitzfrog
I screwed up

What I was calculating was the chance for bingo to hit on the 19th call

I need to add the sum of these from 1~19

Railey2 wrote:

i want to take a look at this

but


guys pls
I wrote it in latex form doe
kai99
I could join in this "exchange of ideas" but my brain is just rejecting math since break started
Blitzfrog
Math education is cancer

Learn maths from OT
kai99
so, .. ... why do i not have a bingo yet?
johnmedina999

kai99 wrote:

so, .. ... why do i not have a bingo yet?

Because the game is over, I won.
kai99
._.
Blitzfrog

kai99 wrote:

so, .. ... why do i not have a bingo yet?
Solve this for your probability
Topic Starter
abraker

Blitzfrog wrote:

Blitzmeth
30 choose 13 is all possible arrangements given a win. Ok.

Still wrapping my head around the multiplication by 12. A potential error in my method is that my math is a solution for where there are 6 tiles in one constant position for any possible win cases.

The following made realize a definite mistake I let happen:

The 36 choose 19 is wrong. Well technically correct, but according to the rules, it's wrong. In no possible scenario are there 36 places where 19 tiles can be arranged in any position. It should be 36-6 choose 19 because there can be a max 30 unlocked tiles before a Bingo prohibits any more being unlocked (a case where there are no unlocked tiles in any diagonal).

Now that I think about it, it's a bit more complicated than that. You need to subtract 36 choose 19 by the number of scenarios prohibited due to a 2nd and 3rd six in a row.
Meah
fuck math, mental abuse to humans
Blitzfrog
Depending on what you're trying to calculate though. The multiplying by 12 is constant through out because there are only 12 ways you can win given any arrangement. But there are also the fact that there isn't only 12 ways to win with 19 tiles as the remaining 19-6 =13 tiles can be placed anywhere. That's why I multiplied the 12 with the fraction, not that you wouldn't know.
Blitzfrog

Meah wrote:

fuck math, mental abuse to humans
Only at school, hence school math since school is mental abuse to human
Topic Starter
abraker

Blitzfrog wrote:

Depending on what you're trying to calculate though. The multiplying by 12 is constant through out because there are only 12 ways you can win given any arrangement. But there are also the fact that there isn't only 12 ways to win with 19 tiles as the remaining 19-6 =13 tiles can be placed anywhere. That's why I multiplied the 12 with the fraction, not that you wouldn't know.
And the division by 36 choose 19?

This one is impossible:

Blitzfrog

abraker wrote:

Blitzfrog wrote:

Blitzmeth
30 choose 13 is all possible arrangements given a win. Ok.

Still wrapping my head around the multiplication by 12. A potential error in my method is that my math is a solution for where there are 6 tiles in one constant position for any possible win cases.

The following made realize a definite mistake I let happen:

The 36 choose 19 is wrong. Well technically correct, but according to the rules, it's wrong. In no possible scenario are there 36 places where 19 tiles can be arranged in any position. It should be 36-6 choose 19 because there can be a max 30 unlocked tiles before a Bingo prohibits any more being unlocked (a case where there are no unlocked tiles in any diagonal).

Now that I think about it, it's a bit more complicated than that. You need to subtract 36 choose 19 by the number of scenarios prohibited due to a 2nd and 3rd six in a row.
Yep which is why I used binomial distribution to work this out
Blitzfrog

abraker wrote:

And the division by 36 choose 19?

This one is impossible:

Yep you're right it is

But that is not in what I was calculating. What I was calculating was the chance for the 19TH call to be the bingo. Which means to find out the cumulative chance you need to find the probability of winning at the 6th call, 7th call... to 19th call and add(not multiply) them all together.


Now why the cumulative chance is because the quote states that he is impressed by the fact that Kai doesn't have a BINGO, which means the bingo could have happened anytime prior to 19 if you interpret it that way
Topic Starter
abraker

Blitzfrog wrote:

abraker wrote:

And the division by 36 choose 19?

This one is impossible:

Yep you're right it is

But that is not in what I was calculating. What I was calculating was the chance for the 19TH call to be the bingo. Which means to find out the cumulative chance you need to find the probability of winning at the 6th call, 7th call... to 19th call and add(not multiply) them all together.


Now why the cumulative chance is because the quote states that he is impressed by the fact that Kai doesn't have a BINGO, which means the bingo could have happened anytime prior to 19 if you interpret it that way
Ah I see now. I was aiming for calculating if there was a bingo already, not that the next tile would be one.
Topic Starter
abraker
updated


kai is so close to winning I'd start placing bets on when it's gonna happen
Blitzfrog

abraker wrote:

Ah I see now. I was aiming for calculating if there was a bingo already, not that the next tile would be one.
Which is what I called the cumulative probability. I didn't calculate it but I wrote the way to calculate it on a piece of paper and posted it here, somewhere above. It's for 22 though.

I think you just missed out on some variable with your equation that's all. Never the less my first attempt wasn't even close LOL


abraker wrote:

updated


kai is so close to winning I'd start placing bets on when it's gonna happen
I should figure out using the stuff I've done to see which one it is lel

Trouble is idk when Kai is going to get tiles :/

Abraker is a dick that's why
Topic Starter
abraker

Blitzfrog wrote:

Which is what I called the cumulative probability. I didn't calculate it but I wrote the way to calculate it on a piece of paper and posted it here, somewhere above. It's for 22 though.

I think you just missed out on some variable with your equation that's all. Never the less my first attempt wasn't even close LOL
Sigh.. I will overlook your "deez nutz chin" thing and the other thing I already forgot and the unauthorized meta manipulation to have you join my club.

I bet you will last less then a week in it anyway

Blitzfrog wrote:

Abraker is a dick that's why
Oh, short lived join. Rest in pepperonis
Blitzfrog
Why join abraker's club when I have my own 0 member club?

give me the privileges
Topic Starter
abraker

Blitzfrog wrote:

Why join abraker's club when I have my own 0 member club?

give me the privileges
And this is why you read warning labels. Please don't be like Blitzfrog and lock yourself out of your own club.
Blitzfrog
Freaking stop roasting plz
kai99
lmao
Blitzfrog
Too late 2 join?

I take it as someone won?
kai99
well i'll take bets on when i'll get bingo.
smh..


i place my bet on three days from now
Blitzfrog
Wow I have way more winning opportunities than you

actually I have 0
kai99

Blitzfrog wrote:

Wow I have way more winning opportunities than you

actually I have 0
in theory you won

theoretically.

and wait till someone else gets bingo before i do lmao
intense
Blitzfrog

kai99 wrote:

Blitzfrog wrote:

Wow I have way more winning opportunities than you

actually I have 0
in theory you won

theoretically.

and wait till someone else gets bingo before i do lmao
intense
If someone gets a bingo before you
I will name you the official nano dick
Cus that's what happens when you rek a micro to pieces
kai99

Blitzfrog wrote:

If someone gets a bingo before you
I will name you the official nano dick
Cus that's what happens when you rek a micro to pieces
can't wait. D:
levesterz
I have unlock that final tile before you bingo.
Blitzfrog

levesterz wrote:

I have unlock that final tile before you bingo.
Same tbh
johnmedina999
I really only need one more to bingo, guys. I got five in a row, and one went stray. I'm about to beat all of you, just you wait.
kai99
yeah let's see who gets it first D:
Endaris
This game makes no sense anyway, there are no tiles for posting after Meah, Kisses, Railey or Tae when there are 16 "post after" tiles.
Topic Starter
abraker

Endaris wrote:

This game makes no sense anyway, there are no tiles for posting after Meah, Kisses, Railey or Tae when there are 16 "post after" tiles.
Unfortunately they were not active enough up to a week prior the game starting for me to consider them. Now I am kinda facing this dilemma vice-versa

Take that as a hint if you will.
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