This math is flawed. Given 17 unlocked tiles and 36 tiles total, any 12 positions which any of the 6 of the 17 tiles can be in if the game is won, and 11 positions where 11 of the 17 tiles cannot be in if the game is won:Blitzfrog wrote:
Well considering that there is 36 tiles
The total outcome is 36!/(36-19)!
=36!/17!
=1.0458433e+27
And that is a huge number
Considering also that the only possible way he/she I'm still not sure about micro-dick's gender gets a bingo is reaching 6 in a row horizontally or vertically. We can do an estimation of the possible bingo hits.
We know for sure he/she(it) has at least got 1 row/column. We can conclude that there is only 30 tiles available for randomisation. Consider also that this will be an over estimation due to the fact that you can't get bingos in multiple columns/multiple rows as the game would have ended. (note it is possible to get a row and a column). So we can conclude that the number of ways you can sort the 13 tiles in the 30 available tile space is
30!/(30-13)!
=30!/17!
=7.4574708e+17
Now note that 1.0458433e+27 is a much much larger number than 7.4574708e+17
Hence it is unlikely he/she would have got a bingo
Let Tile[x] be Tile 1 to 17.
Tile[1.. 6] = 6 tiles
Tile[7.. 12] = 6 tiles
Tile[13.. 17] = 5 tiles
Therefore at most, two positions of six are possible ignoring winning.
Suppose the game is won. Then there is one position where there are 6 tiles in a row.
Let Tile[1.. 6] by the tiles in the position.
Therefore the number of tiles there are free to for others to be placed on are:
NUM_TOTAL_TILES - NUM_WINNING_TILES - NUM_IMPOSSIBLE_TILES = 36 - 6 - 11, where
(NUM_TILES_NEEDED_TO_WIN - MAX_TILES_THERE_CAN_BE_WITHOUT_WIN) * NUM_IMPOSSIBLE_POSITIONS = (6 - 5) * 11 = 11
Which gives us 19 possible places where the remaining 11 tiles can be. 19 choose 11 = 75,582 possible combinations if win
Now in the instance the game is not won, there are 12 locations the 17 tiles cannot be in
The total number of position the tiles can be in ignoring that is 36 chose 17. Factoring in the 12 impossible locations, we get (36-12) choose 17 = 346,104 positions the tiles can be in if not win
To get the odds of win:
Win combinations/ (Win combinations + not win combinations) = 75,582/(75,582 + 346,104) = 17.92%
To get the odds of not win:
Not win combinations/ (Win com - fuck it just subtract from 100% you math illiterate fag.
Well I hope you learned something. I will now go while in fear I left a mistake somewhere. Have fun!