First, comments since my last post.(Yeah, I totally stole your colour, Q. ;P)
NoHItter wrote:
Re: Prodding
LadySuburu wrote:
17. If a player has not posted in 24 hours, I will prod them if requested to do so. That is, it's up to you to ask me to prod a certain player.
I have to leave soon. Will post opinions later.
Wups; I was probably thinking of that PyP game.
DeathxShinigami wrote:
@ Ph0x I'm understanding why you see animask as pro town but he's really an emotional player which makes it seem either a style base of playing like me or he's really new.
Any thoughts?
Yes; see my analysis below.
NoHItter wrote:
I think right now, I would prefer a lynch among either Mahsley or animask.
[...]
Mashley for that comment a while back that pinged me.
Mashley, what do you think of NoHItter's suspicions of you, exactly? I know you defended yourself already, but what of NoHItter's persistence?
bmin11 wrote:
First, I think animask is a townie now (ya I might have gotten influenced by Ph0X but whatever).
Haha! Kinda funny; I already saw that (see analysis below).
bmin11 wrote:
If he was a mafia, he wouldn't have driven himself this far behind, unless his mafia fellow was being afk.
I didn't see that, and I agree with you. However, there are other ways a mafia can defend his buddy besides direct defense, including trying to vote for someone else or using extreme distancing to attract reverse attention (which gets really complicated and is hard to pull off ... but whatever).
bmin11 wrote:
This is my first game and I'm looking forward to it.
Really? You look like a pretty decent player.
Anyway, I re-read the thread. Here are my thoughts.animask's famous rolefishing post.
bmin's response paints him as a newbie, likely pro-town.
DxS shows suspicion of bmin.
animask shows true newbiness, responding to bmin's post rather poorly.
DxS talks about bmin again. I already
stated my comments on this post, so I won't repeat them here. So far, bmin's posts have been sound and well-formed; clearly not newbie behaviour.
bmin's first post (the response to animask) now (in hindsight) looks more like assistance, rather than newbiness.
animask covers his mistake, claiming playfulness. animask may not have been using that as a cover, but it certainly appears that way, so that's what I believe.
DxS's response to my comments of his accusations against bmin attempts to sound sportsmanship-like, but comes across as defensive and an OMGUS post. The end of
his next post has a similar tone; as I stated in response,
"[DxS is] stating the obvious, but in a weird way, and in a way which deters attention from [himself]."NoHItter posted his questionnaire, and I am still unsure what to make of it. For now I have been ignoring it. In hindsight, it may have been an attempt to get the attention off of DxS or another player. Possible implicit buddying; will keep that in mind in the future. (However, at the same time, he throws a minor FoS at DxS, so this argument against NoHItter isn't too strong. Maybe bmin?)
animask posts "Why I would want to scope out for aux roles..." Just realized: it doesn't sound like animask performed this analysis before posting the initial rolefishing post. At first, I conclude "animask was a newbie for not considering the consequences of his actions". However, there's the "intentionally not caring about the consequences" argument as well, painting him as a mafia member. This is cause for suspicion, but I am not sure what to believe out of this yet. Also, as I
stated soon after, a few of these reasonings were "wrong", so either animask was trying to populate the list with good intentions (to defend himself) or he didn't realize how silly those suggestions were (supporting his newbiness).
I posted asking for iMuffin's thoughts; I
still have yet to receive any response or acknowledgement from him.
animask makes a short-sighted comment in his defense. This post also shows behaviour of either a very newbie townie or a desperate mafia member. Either way, it's a suspicious comment (
as I have already posted).
Mashley stated a "soft FoS" against animask. Personally, I don't find what Mashley said to be disturbing, but others were offset by it. The way I see it, Mashley was having a gut feeling against animask, but did not have the analytical evidence to back up a vote.
I commented on DxS's "hectic atmosphere" post by saying "Maybe it's because I'm making you sweat. ;P" It may have seemed like I was being playful, but it seemed clear to me that DxS was feeling pressured.
DxS's response, backing out, supports this. However, I can certainly see someone who
wasn't being pressured making the same move. Still, I don't think it was a very DxS-y thing to do.
Q pops in to answer the quiz, yet says nothing else. Detachment from the game: a classic mafia tell.
NoHItter suggests we all post suspicion lists. While suspicions lists aren't suspicious in general, asking for them (in my experience) is a scum tell. (I have, however, seen townies ask for it, but only late-game.) More suspicion points for NoHItter. In the same post, NoHItter votes for Mashley. His reasoning is very weak; I would expect a FoS at most. Being the first to vote makes NoHItter
seem like they're genuinely scumhunting, but I'm not falling for it.
Mashley defends the attacked post, confirming my thoughts of that post (see above). (
A comment from bmin (as well as
one by me) appears later on.)
More newbie posting by animask,
and again, explained in the trailing posts.
Mashley votes for animask. From what I see, this is almost completely due to pressure, from NoHItter and from the clock (day was ending soon then), and not due to exhaustive reasoning. Sure, Mashley states vague suspicions ("[t]he things he's said just seem so not-town-like"), but not even attempting to elaborate supports my pressure argument. Of course, I am not denying the fact that Mashley could be a mafia member trying to land a popular vote. While that is a definite possibility, I find he pressure argument more believable at this point.
bmin asks for opinions of animask (of a specific pair of posts). This is very pro-town to me. Being analytical in
his next post regarding Mashley also gives bmin a few town points.
DxS votes for animask. Him not doing this immediately leads me to believe he and Mashley are not buddies (as he didn't save Mashley from a vote) (but, of course, either of them may be).
LS extends Day 1 by 48 hours. Yippee!
NoHItter explains how2Mafia to animask. Good boy. Shows experience, but nothing else, sadly. (Really wanna figure out this guy...)
Q finally voices his opinions. I agree with his findings regarding animask (which you can see in my comments above). (I am still not entirely convinced, though.) He throws a FoS at Mashley, with reasoning which was
quickly disputed and shot down. His FoS against bmin is also pretty weak, and seems to be just hopping onto what
NoHItter asked of bmin rather than any analytical findings. From this post, and his general lack of engagement with the game, it seems Q doesn't seem to interested in the game. He looks like a good player, though, and it doesn't look like he's "just a lurker". This results in some suspicion from me.
DxS changes his opinion of animask. Nothing wrong with that; I do it all the time. He also realizes bmin isn't a newbie (which I quickly discovered myself), which is good. Other than that, his post doesn't provide too much information other than "now I don't find anyone suspicious".
bmin jumps on the "animask is prolly newb town" bandwagon. Progress, but also not helpful (like with DxS) to me.
rust posts his opinions of other players, which no suspicions whatsoever. =[
NoHItter posts his suspicions. Seems like NoHItter's opinions hasn't changed like those of most other players. I still don't like his reasoning. I also find it suspicious that he didn't find anything wrong with iMuffin's absenteeism.
DxS explains his "bluff" from earlier in the day. I don't completely believe him (it may be a cover-up), but based on what he has said and done in the past, his excuse seems reasonable.
bmin posts his iMuffin-animask mafia theory. It's pretty convincing; I am willing to try it. However, currently the idea doesn't align well with my suspicions.
Player comments (in alpha order)DxSUsed to be my #1 suspicion. That has changed, however. I thought he was buddying with bmin (and I did not know about their meta relationship, whatever it is), and both are now is distancing (perhaps in realization?). If bmin or DxS turn up mafia, I am looking critically at the other. Still, no FoS at this point.
MashleySeems pretty newb, though I am sure I've seen him play before. Doesn't really explain himself well. Seems to be voting for animask because it's an easy vote, which is suspicious. FoS.
NoHItterStrong FoS. Insistant on animask and Mashley. Some suspicious activity in the name of aiding discussions, which has
confused the town. Doesn't seem to be too analytical himself; wants others to do the dirty work for him so he can just use their opinions, I find.
Ph0XHehehe.
QNetbattler Q.
My opinion of him is hazy. I should probably do some more mining on this guy, as he has slightly hit my radar a few times. Minor FoS for now.
animaskAs I posted in my analysis, and as other players have come to conclude, I feel animask is pro-town, but very newbie. I want to keep him around because IMO it would suck if he died day 1 without a chance to really play the game.
bminPretty cool guy; doesn't afraid of anything. Either a really good mafia or a decent townie. My money's on the latter.
iMuffinWHERE ARE YOU?
rustActually, I don't know. Let me look...
Oh look, I have only one comment about him. And it's pretty much useless. That trips my alarm! FoS! May have to look at him in isolation. Will do that in a follow-up post.
Suspicion list (tiered, alpha)~ Suspicious ~
NoHItter
rust
Mashley
~ Not-so-suspicious ~
DxS
iMuffin
Q
animask
bmin
Ph0X