E-3 grind: Day 9
I am now somewhere beyond 200 S/A-ranks. This is fucking retarded, it's time to close up sho--
SUDDENLYOUT OF FUCKING NOWHERE
It's error musume-tan!HOLY SHITTT AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARAHGOEIHSOIERNHUOII983OH32 9OI8HOI980HVN WHO980
Up to this point, it has taken 224 S/A-ranks, 195 of which were S's. In the process I've burned somewhere in the region of 64k fuel, 35k ammo, 25k steel, as well as a whopping 734 buckets!! It's also taken up about an average of 5-8 hours of my time in passive play
(I'll usually try to find something else to do at the same time), each day, which is arguably the most valuable resource.
Why would one go through such an ordeal?
I'll admit, this was fucking stupid. Especially since I'll probably get her again by accident in 10 runs the next time I grind for a ship. The main reason was because Asagumo is literally the last ship that drops in this event that I don't already have. The other reason was because by around ~100 S-ranks, I felt like I've already committed way too much to give up by then. Bad decision.
To see just how stupid this is, let's take a quick look at the data.
Distribution of drops that have a 2% chance of dropping on S-rank (including A-rank results)Before this point, I had gotten nearly every other 2% ship at least twice. I also got Ise and Hyuuga (4%) 13 and 11 times respectively.
And even though I probably failed my midterm from yesterday, let's throw in some math!
What are the odds of getting ship-x in 200 trials, if she has a 2% drop chance?
Actually, a better question would be,
What are the odds of me not getting Asagumo 200 times in a row?She has a 2% chance of dropping on S or A rank at E-3-S, according to multiple sites, thus there is a 98% chance you won't get her for any given successful clear.
To get that probability, we multiply 0.98^200
= 0.01759In reality, I was actually aiming to give up by the 228th time, and that gives us 0.98^228
= 0.00999!
That means that it's close to a 1% chance that this mess could happen to you. To put this in perspective, it was
twice as likely for me to get her on my
first run than it was for me to not get her in 228 trials!! In fact,
every single one of those 228 trials had that same probability.
To make matters worse, this is the third time something stupid like this has happened to me.
Umikaze and Graf Zeppelin were both 2% drops in previous events, yet it took me (coincidentally) exactly 100 S-ranks to get both of them. That's a 13.53% chance for both individual grinds.
So what does this all mean? It can be one of two things.
1. I am extremely fucking unlucky.
2. There is unseen shit beyond simple probabilities going on behind the scenes, and the numbers we see cannot be trusted.
I don't doubt either of those cases being true, but regardless, hopefully this was a lesson learned for some of you. If you read this far anyways.
Apologies for the uni-level lab report. I'll... stop posting now.
PS. i obviously did check my math, [source]tl;dr dont ever fucking grind for drops again