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Royston
187 posts
Joined June 2012
Royston

Lilac wrote:

V/LA until the 11th. I need to not play mafia so I can actually focus on Uni.

Thanks.
I don't know what V/LA means (Visiting Los Angeles? probably not) but I wouldn't expect a quick response


rEdo wrote:

he's never responded to Royston's p/2536772, which could've been an uncomfortable question.
he did actually p/2540861

I'll post my reads tomorrow, feeling sleepy
DakeDekaane
osu! Alumni
3,500 posts
Joined February 2012
DakeDekaane
rEdo, don't waste your vig-shot on me, as nothing will change if you do. I suggest you to save your shot until the last hours of this day, when things can become clearer instead going for a rushed decision.

And as I was the one that suggested it, my reads:

Tsukasa -> town/scum depeding on NH's role flip, if any.
rEdo -> if the claim is true -> town
Royston -> if the claim is true -> likely town
BRBP -> leaning town?
pieguy -> his thoughts about NH doesn't convince me that much, he could be mafia/scum/even a third party, so I'm giving a null read for now.
kook, farto, Lilac and Rantai -> null, so scum should be in this group.

@Royston, if you motivate someone, he'll have the extra action the same night, or the next one?
rEdo
809 posts
Joined November 2008
rEdo

DakeDekaane wrote:

rEdo, don't waste your vig-shot on me, as nothing will change if you do. I suggest you to save your shot until the last hours of this day, when things can become clearer instead going for a rushed decision.
that's what I'm going to do, I just claimed it to force people to talk.
VoidnOwO
1,256 posts
Joined August 2012
VoidnOwO
:)
Last edited by VoidnOwO , edited 1 time in total.
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn

DakeDekaane wrote:

rEdo, don't waste your vig-shot on me, as nothing will change if you do. I suggest you to save your shot until the last hours of this day, when things can become clearer instead going for a rushed decision.
assuming 4 mafia and the extra kill was just a vig shot or w/e, we can shoot you and not get penalized (in fact it's better cause dayvig kill > mafia kill) cause it'll make the parity correct. how does that make you feel :>

but knowing LS and what's happened so far, I'm almost certain there's a SK. there better not be 4 mafia and a SK

3. Tsukasa
6. kookookook
7. fartownik
10. Lilac
^ post your reads plz

Dake didn't even pressure me more when I even gave him an opportunity. if he really wanted to scumhunt I would expect he'd say something more kthx

I'm fine with you shooting him rEdo, but wait a bit longer plz. and thx for not using dayvig D1 without asking first

also I really want Lilac to roleclaim on second thought. I can't fking get the obvious possibility that Lilac is SK out of my head even if it's too basic for LS
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Actually speaking of Royston, do we have any proof he is actually a motivator?

Seems odd he made the claim, hasn't died and as far as I can tell no one has received a motivation. Before anyone gets antsy about fishing, we are getting precariously close to ly-lo/my-lo if we are on the worst case scenario (given 15 initially 3-4 scum sounds about right, given 10 alive and assuming no scum have died we're at 3-7 or 4-6). Any confirmation is good information at this stage.
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
yeah that's a good point
whoever was motivated by Royston plz say so
not sure if it's a good idea if this person claims the exact effects or not, but really we need everything we can get right now
Royston
187 posts
Joined June 2012
Royston
No. The person was motivated by me, don't say anything, please.

DakeDekaane wrote:

@Royston, if you motivate someone, he'll have the extra action the same night, or the next one?
I asked the mod about it. The same night.

As for who I'm motivated (uhur geddit) to vote for, not a whole lot has changed. I'm still wary of Lilac. Dake too (yes for the same reason I stated when I voted him back in D1) kookookook for inactivity ( he should be unsilenced now?) and fartownik to some extent.

...Well, that's like half the remaining players, so I'm evidently wrong somewhere.
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn

Royston wrote:

No. The person was motivated by me, don't say anything, please.
can you elaborate why plz
Royston
187 posts
Joined June 2012
Royston
Wait, nevermind. I've changed my mind. Sure, go ahead.
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
wow
at least tell us what your idea was plz
Royston
187 posts
Joined June 2012
Royston
Dohaahylafvbawshfpunaha
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
wat
Royston
187 posts
Joined June 2012
Royston
Phtvapchalkhfvb,hwplnbf.hFvb!Dofhtbzahfvbhkvhaopzhavhtl? :(

If you decode this before others do don't reveal the message.
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
Royston I don't see how that's beneficial to town

worst case scenario only mafia bothers decoding it which I assume is the opposite of what you want to do. even if everyone decodes it, it's the same scenario as if you just post it except everyone has to use more effort = =
Royston
187 posts
Joined June 2012
Royston
if nobody posts the decoded message soon and you don't let me know if you've decoded it then I'll just post it anyway, that's the worst case scenario; no big problem. I figured I may as well have a go on the small chance that you're able to decode it and no one else does as that would be beneficial to town

pls post more everyone
fartownik
2,189 posts
Joined December 2008
fartownik
Okay okay, I'm here. Sorry for the inactivity, reviewing almost the whole thread again wasn't the most appealing thing to do.

Let's begin from people I think are Town at the moment.

rEdo - if his claim is truthful (and I think it is) then he will be most likely confirmed Town, though an idea of a scum Dayvig in such game wouldn't be out of consideration, but I don't want to believe it. We should use it at the end of the day, when we have a solid candidate for the lynch. By the way, I was thinking about the setup after rEdo's claim and recalled Tanz's Speedy Reviver role. It was most likely a Day Reviver, put in the game for a Day Kill + Day Revive combo. Just a random thought.

Tsukasa - His behavior was out of meta for the whole game and I thought it's scummy, but it seems like it was simply out of inactivity (lack of time). If NH flips Town Cop then he will be confirmed Town in my eyes, so I guess we should resist from lynching him until tomorrow morning.

Above are more or less confirmed Town for me. Now the scum-leaning and null cases.

I will begin from Royston's code from the previous page. I actually managed to decipher it and the outcome was pretty funny.

Phtvapchalkhfvb,hwplnbf.hFvb!Dofhtbzahfvbhkvhaopzhavhtl
=
IAMOT IVATE DAYOU ,APIE GUY.A YOU!W HYAMU STAYO UADOA THISA TOAME
=
I MOTIVATED YOU, PIEGUY. WHY MUST YOU DO THIS TO ME?
It was a simple Caesar Code by the way.

Let's sum this up. pieguy pushes Royston to reveal his night target, Royston claims Motivating pieguy during the night. This situation is at least odd and I would like both to speak before I say anything important on the case, though it seems like one of you is lying.

Next scum-leaning is still kookx3. If he had no time to play the game he would ask for a replacement as I asked him, or like Tsukasa did. The whole game he's been lurking and posting unimportant things, nothing seemed productive in his play. The newbie card doesn't work here anymore.

Lilac is still an SK in my eyes. It would explain an additional kill the night he joined the game, and simply fits my interpretation of this game's intention. His ISO is really, really empty. Looks like nothing more than filler posts.

About the rest, I simply don't know. They're null for me and I can't seem to find a way to set even a brief lean-read on them. Results of neglecting the game, sorry for that.

I hope this helps however, especially the code part.
Lilac
Elite Mapper
1,515 posts
Joined December 2008
Lilac

fartownik wrote:

Lilac is still an SK in my eyes. It would explain an additional kill the night he joined the game, and simply fits my interpretation of this game's intention.

pieguy1372 wrote:

I can't fking get the obvious possibility that Lilac is SK out of my head even if it's too basic for LS
I think you're both forgetting about the doctor who got lynched.
Lilac
Elite Mapper
1,515 posts
Joined December 2008
Lilac
Regardless, Blue Yoshi got lynched D2 with only one vote by RB. No one could uniformly decide on a lynch and this is what we're getting. Accusations without firepower by a ton of people which makes scum easier to get away with doing little to seem town.

It's culling without conviction. Weaksauce.

I would elaborate more if I wasn't switching back and forth from work and this. I am V/LA for a reason.
Royston
187 posts
Joined June 2012
Royston
wait, what Lilac? Blue Yoshi shouldn't have been lynched. That's the thing. I calculated the votes and at the end of D2 they were:

Tsukasa (2): DakeDekaane, kookookook
Blue Yoshi (1): Raging Bull
kookookook(1): fartownik
rEdo(1): pieguy1372
Lilac(1): Royston
fartownik(1): Lilac
DakeDekaane(1): Rantai
Royston(1): rEdo

@fart: There's two possibilites from my perspective.
a) pieguy is playing dumb
or b) he didn't get the message for whatever reason (target was switched to someone else or I was roleblocked)

I'm leaning towards b) at the moment, if only because I don't see a reason for scum to lie about being motivated or not, since I'm not a cop/gunsmith or something that could incriminate them
Lilac
Elite Mapper
1,515 posts
Joined December 2008
Lilac
Well. I suggest you scrutinize either the mod or Tsukasa then.

Cause one or both of them have some explaining to do.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
So wait what?

As far as I can remember motivations usually have messages for the receiver. Even if he didn't receive one, I'd assume that he at least got some sort of noticeable upgrade to whatever his role is. Only pieguy can tell us if he actually got anything I guess.

And oh great so now we have some sort of vote manipulation around too?
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
I didn't get a PM saying I got motivated
I checked with LS first to make sure I'd get a PM immediately (cause it might have been start of N4 instead) and I should have received one immediately 0.0

IMO most likely thing is that mafia roleblocked you just cause you were the only claimed PR. whoever fked with the votes needs to claim immediately though
Royston
187 posts
Joined June 2012
Royston
Yeah, I sent it very early on in the night. So it's immediate? Interesting. So if I was roleblocked, that also means the person who roleblocked me was active around the time where night begun. Hmm...

Apologies for the weirdness by the way, freaked out when you of all people asked the person who gof motivated to reveal themselves. :P
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
I assume "immediately" meant at the end of N3 because it's impossible to know for sure if the motivation will work when you submit the action
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
Did you try to motivate someone every night Royston?
Royston
187 posts
Joined June 2012
Royston

Rantai wrote:

Did you try to motivate someone every night Royston?
I believe Dake asked this earlier, but I submitted "No Action" the first night. So last night was the first time I tried targeting someone.

pieguy1372 wrote:

I assume "immediately" meant at the end of N3 because it's impossible to know for sure if the motivation will work when you submit the action
Oh. I'm unfamiliar with how this kind of thing works...
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
mafia would have to be really ballsy or insane to claim they did nothing n1, then targeted someone n2 with an action which they knew wasn't true and then claim they got roleblocked. and then say they don't have a wincon in their PM on top of that

1. pieguy <- town
5. Royston <- town
8. rEdo <- town

2. DakeDekaane
3. Tsukasa
4. BRBP
6. kookookook
7. fartownik
9. Rantai
10. Lilac
^ just like this, we already have a >50% chance to lynch scum or SK, kthx

I think you're both forgetting about the doctor who got lynched.
do you know how hard it even is to get a successful protect N1
14 possible choices, 3 ~ 4 of which won't be NKed in the first place, and one that may or may not be possible to target depending on mod
also note how he just resorts to "doctor" and doesn't mention about other possibilities. like he planned to say it all along, rather than not knowing what might have happened

also, if anyone is responsible for Tsukasa not getting lynched D2, roleclaim now or die
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
you know what, I'm willing to bet my >50% chance on Lilac just based on what I mentioned in that post
but imo at this point it's not beneficial for town to lynch SK as then we get a 3-5 D4. I want SK to shoot scum first <3 cause that way it'll be 2-4-1 heading into D4.
scum might even shoot SK giving us a chance to get 2-5 or 3-4. (3-4 is just the same as 3-5 anyway cause town must NL)
Royston
187 posts
Joined June 2012
Royston
Well that's assuming that Lilac is actually a Serial Killer, haha. But hopefully the pattern continues and we get to see the alignment of NoHItter and RB to give us some clues.

If not Lilac, who out of
2. DakeDekaane
3. Tsukasa
4. BRBP
6. kookookook
7. fartownik
9. Rantai
would be our best option do you think?

At the moment my feeling on most likely to least likely to be scum is kook > Dake > Tsukasa > fart > Rantai > BRBP, but I'm willing to back you up on whoever you think.
DakeDekaane
osu! Alumni
3,500 posts
Joined February 2012
DakeDekaane

pieguy1372 wrote:

3. pieguy <- town

pieguy1372 wrote:

1. pieguy <- town
lol

Also basing yourself in probabilities, ew

Have we confirmed the SK? pretty much likely but not 100%, I've also thought about a PGO. If there's a SK, he'd likely shoot the "most townie", and mafia will do the same.
Can mafia kill be motivated? inb4 no.

If you read carefully the thread, you'll find something interesting, Lilac has a very low chance of being SK (if any), as your theories are wrong.
Royston
187 posts
Joined June 2012
Royston

DakeDekaane wrote:

Have we confirmed the SK? pretty much likely but not 100%

DakeDekaane wrote:

If you read carefully the thread, you'll find something interesting, Lilac has a very low chance of being SK (if any), as your theories are wrong.
So what you're saying is that you think there's a SK but it's not Lilac? Also, as for the something interesting, what are you referring to exactly?


DakeDekaane wrote:

I've also thought about a PGO. If there's a SK, he'd likely shoot the "most townie", and mafia will do the same.
I have to disagree with you there, on the SK part at least.

PGO is also a possibility I suppose, unless it turns out NoHItter/RB didn't have any night actions.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai

DakeDekaane wrote:

If you read carefully the thread, you'll find something interesting, Lilac has a very low chance of being SK (if any), as your theories are wrong.
Why are people purposely trying to be so cryptic?

Also why would an SK shoot the most townie people? Once the town are dead the mafia can determine exactly who is the SK.
pieguyn
2,020 posts
Joined May 2009
pieguyn
Dake it's not optimal for SK to shoot the most pro-town player, it's optimal for SK to shoot mafia. each faction who can kill wants to get rid of each other. besides if all the town is gone it ends up being n mafia - 1 SK and SK loses anyway. besides the parity right now is incorrect, so having an extra kill won't hurt us much
rEdo
809 posts
Joined November 2008
rEdo

Royston wrote:

If not Lilac, who out of [q­uote]­ would be our best option do you think?
Dake > Rantai > Tsukasa = fartownik = kook3 > BRBP.

if the hypothesis of Lilac being a SK being in the game is true, I'd go with a lynch on Dake and shooting someone from second or third bracket. however, how sure are we that we've got a third-side party? like Dake mentioned, this could've been a PGO who died along with some Mafioso, but we'll get to know that in game's tomorrow, unfortunately.

not sure if that's already been mentioned, but
Mod: requesting a replacement for kookookook and Tsukasa.
LadySuburu
80 posts
Joined June 2008
Topic Starter
LadySuburu

rEdo wrote:

Mod: requesting a replacement for kookookook and Tsukasa.

Sephibro replaces Tsukasa (Was still searching for one.)

Looking for a replacement for kookookook.
DakeDekaane
osu! Alumni
3,500 posts
Joined February 2012
DakeDekaane
What I'm saying is that Lilac wasn't introduced in D2, like many of you think, he was playing since D1, LS just messed up the players list, just go to the RVS stage in D1. why he didn't post? I really have no idea.

rEdo, shoot pieguy/Rantai, then you can lynch me if you still want to. Don't shoot Tsukasa/Sephibro until we get the role flip for NH. Why pieguy? Is he considered town? how did he got towncred?; Why Rantai? Because is your other suspect besides Tsukasa and me, it's a null-read for me.
Rantai
1,000 posts
Joined July 2010
Rantai
So.. you both think I'm a good candidate because you have nothing to make a case on me.

Does anyone else see the problem with that?

Actually, given last night's results we don't have a guarantee that alignments will flip so DD specifically stating that he's fine dying but through a lynch leads me to believe that he may be the player with the vote manipulation, given that he can hide behind that wifom. That and he seems to be pushing a kill on pieguy who is sitting more town than scum (in my opinion at least) and trying to get the person who suspects him the most off his back.
Sephibro
315 posts
Joined November 2012
Sephibro
i just finished reading those fucking 42 pages. be aware that if i fucking die this day or this night i will find and kill you all, irl. hello everybody :)

REPLACING TSUKASA

btw, these are my thoughts:

Most retarded D1 ever. I was 95% sure yuno was a jester from 4 or 5 pages before the end of the day. He felt the urge to be lynched, so he started telling bullshit, editing and deleting posts intentionally. I was 100% sure when LS gave him a "second chance" instead of an instant modkill, at that point i would have insisted for him to be modkilled, as it was clear as water that he was a jester.
To be honest, i would have tried to vote LS too this day :P

fartownik - i've been pretty sure you are scum since your first posts, they are too full of forced towny show-offs. and on D1 you naively voted yuno because it would have been easy to get other votes on him because of his weird behaviour (and a real scum would NEVER have such a behaviour)
rEdo - honestly i had the same exact impression about you, i had the feeling that you and farto were performing a pre-meditated strategy. Your claim surprised me, but you are still 50/50 to me until you demonstrate you really are vig
DakeDekaane - i have the feeling you are scum too
kookookook - i've suspected of him for his inactivity and his rough posts. btw almost every suspect is dissipated now, i'll write the reason if LS tells me i can
pieguy - i really think you are town, and you are playing a good match. If you are scum, you're playing an excellent match. the only dumb thing you did was voting for yuno on d1
Royston - town, just a bit noob
Rantai - i read a post of yours in the first pages that made me think you are a town, im gonna find it tomorrow. I'm not very sure btw
Lilac - i have a couple thoughts about him, i'll write them down tomorrow. i can't hide that the way he joined the game left me puzzled
BRBP - i have to read some of his posts better, more town than scum

i hope i didn't forget to mention anybody.
i think that voting one among farto and dake is the best thing we can do this day, in my opinion we have more than 70% chance of lynching a scum. telling this isn't probably a clever move by me, but if rEdo is actually vig that's not so stupid

Vote: fartownik

Mod: when's the deadline?

@everybody: please explain abbreviations the first time you use them, i'm new to forum mafia, it would help me very much :) Example: " [...] FoS (=Finger of Suspicion + brief explaination)"

TL;DR read that motherfucking post, i've read 42 pages. it's also 5 am and i'm not going to re-read it, i hope i didn't write anything too wrong
Royston
187 posts
Joined June 2012
Royston

DakeDekaane wrote:

What I'm saying is that Lilac wasn't introduced in D2, like many of you think, he was playing since D1, LS just messed up the players list, just go to the RVS stage in D1. why he didn't post? I really have no idea.
If he even was allowed to post, I'd say he didn't post as to not reveal his identity. For the sake of argument let's say Lilac was a SK and that he was able to kill N1. The one death N1 (I assume that's the point your making? Correct me if I'm wrong) doesn't really prove anything considering we had a doc (Blue Yoshi) on our side

Royston - town, just a bit noob
I'm trying here :(

Sephibro wrote:

btw almost every suspect is dissipated now, i'll write the reason if LS tells me i can
Great. Another mystery to add to the pile...

DakeDekaane wrote:

Why pieguy? Is he considered town? how did he got towncred?
Well, I consider him town from my position. Unless he's being really sneaky mafia and roleblocked me, and part of his plan was to ask for the person who got motivated to reveal themselves, knowing that there would be no-one...

...Actually, that almost sounds plausible. Um, I need to think about this some more...
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