Newbie Mafia 2! [Mafia Win!]

posted
Total Posts
635
show more
Derekku
strager, are you NOT fucking listening? There's no point in coding over 9000 lines of code. No lynch day 1 = Free kill for mafia.

Should we also NOT lynch day 2? Day 3? :evil:

Like SFG said, I'm starting to wonder about you, strager :|
anonymous_old

Derekku Chan wrote:

strager, are you NOT fucking listening? There's no point in coding over 9000 lines of code. No lynch day 1 = Free kill for mafia.

Should we also NOT lynch day 2? Day 3? :evil:

Like SFG said, I'm starting to wonder about you, strager :|
Read what I wrote:

strager wrote:

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

if we don't lynch today, the mafia get a free kill. im starting to really wonder about you, strager.
That may be true, but with eight players total and one Mafia you'll observe:
:!g++ -g mafia.cpp && ./a.out
Setup:
Mafia:
Normal: 1
Role blocker: 0
Town:
Normal: 7
Doctor: 0
Mafia wins 54.687500% of the time with lynch on Day 1
Mafia wins 45.714286% of the time with no lynch on Day 1
BagelBob
What you seem to be missing is
A) We have nine people and
B) we aren't going to lynch at random
Echo
No lynch d1 is disadvantageous for town. Plus, a lynch also shows voting patterns, which helps later on in the game to identify mafia. Please don't post pages of code, no one's going to read it anyway.
Derekku
strager, you don't seem to realize that in every setup for this game, there are TWO mafia. Unless you think that one of them is going to kill the other at night, then I don't know what the hell you're trying to get at.
anonymous_old

BagelBob wrote:

strager wrote:

nardi11011 wrote:

One thing I don't get: why did strager reveal his role instead of just saying "I was looking at the PM in the OP and was just wondering"?
Because I don't like lying.
I call BS, you meant to claim your roll. I was in the IRC with you before the game started. You could have sent your question as a PM to Suburu. You could have easily said that you were just curious. While lies generally do not help the town, the doctor role-claiming on the first day is worse.
One, before the game started, I didn't have the Doctor PM.
Two, if I lied, I would have to stay with that lie. I would rather stay with the truth.
Three, claiming Doctor was an accident. I've said this several times I think.

BagelBob wrote:

Also, why are you ignoring these two posts?
The second post I may have missed. I have nothing to comment on it though.
The first post I thought I responded to, but apparently I didn't. Here's my response:

BagelBob wrote:

From what I see in that post, I can only think that you're voting for Echo because Echo was attacking you. Is this correct? Is there anything else that I'm missing?
That is correct.

BagelBob wrote:

And again, Why are Derekku and 0_o above 50? Why are the rest of us below 50? Was that whole chart just BS?
It was relative suspicion at the time. The list can be disregarded now as my opinion has changed, though.

BagelBob wrote:

But you didn't leave them out, and now you ought to explain what you said. Who mixed up a sequence of events and which sequence of events was it? What is it that you misunderstood? Do you need clarification on some matter?
Echo misunderstood. He thought I was saying he thought I was a Mafia because he voted for me, and this is what he posted. What I had THOUGHT he posted was that I should tell him why he voted for me, or something, which was really confusing.

When I finally posted that, though, I DID understand what he meant. The few lines which probably confused people were saying I at first DIDN'T understand but now (and at the time I hit the submit button for that post) I DID.

BagelBob wrote:

This section is just a re-statement. I don't see any explanations, nor a need for any. Of course Echo thinks that you're a mafia. My first clue was the case, my second was the vote. I know you didn't think that Echo thought you were a vanilla townie. There was a whole section about whether or not you were fake-claiming as a townie, with Echo definitively of the mind that that would be a bad idea. You're saying that to make it look like Echo is lynching a townie. You should have at least said doctor, since that's what you're claiming to be.
Again, I wasn't trying to explain anything. I WAS re-stating.

BagelBob wrote:

A quick-lynch, such as the one you described, would generally be an obvious scum-tell.
Circular reasoning?

BagelBob wrote:

Really, adam and Echo bandwagoning? Adam was the first one to vote for you, and Echo has been making the case.
I never said that. The exact thing you quoted:

strager wrote:

All I meant to say there that one or two of adam, Echo, nardi, and SFG were bandwagonning as a Mafia, not all of them.

BagelBob wrote:

your junk about random voting is this:
In chronological order:

strager wrote:

In the first case I deduce one of these to be a Mafia: adam, SFG, nardi
In the third case I deduce these are probably NOT Mafia (because they didn't jump on the bandwagon): Derekku, 0_o

For the first case it seems as if adam's vote was random and SFG's vote was only somewhat random, as was nardi's. So my suspicions for the latter two are above my suspicions for adam. From that I really can't say much more though.

For the third case, 0_o seems to be really trying to defend me which either means he's deceitful (and will kill me at night) or genuinely trying to help the town. I'm not foolish enough to denounce the former but based on my observation above he may be a Townie more than a Mafia.
I really don't know what to think of Derekku because he hasn't been doing much from what I can see, really. He could be bad at analysis, not have information to discuss, or is smart enough not to talk because he may leak information. So ... not really sure.

BagelBob wrote:

In addition, did you mean that adam, SFG, and nardii's votes looked like bandwagon votes? You state that you think 0_o and Derekuu were not on the bandwagon, but then you throw junk about random voting. Adam's vote started out random, but he kept posting and saying that he was reading the thread and agreed with Echo's logic.

strager wrote:

BagelBob wrote:

You state that you think 0_o and Derekuu were not on the bandwagon, but then you throw junk about random voting.
Where is this "junk about random voting?"
The random voting part was for the first case, and the 0_o and Derekku part was for the third case.

----------
(Back to the original post.)

BagelBob wrote:

Neither of those two pieces of code deals with our set-up. Why are you wasting time with things that don't apply? You can code all day, but when you get down to it, we aren't lynching someone at random.
On the first day the first lynch is probably random anyway.
anonymous_old
This map has been deleted on the request of its creator. It is no longer available.
Derekku

strager wrote:

Also, some games only have one Mafia and some have three or more. (I know this specific game has two Mafia, but the game of Mafia doesn't have that ultimate rule. I was stating an example earlier.)
Then what's the fucking point of going through all of this? This game of mafia has TWO people as mafia. =|

EDIT: It should be common sense that it's a bad choice. =)
0_o
This map has been deleted on the request of its creator. It is no longer available.
anonymous_old

0_o wrote:

I think he was just pointing out that there are situations where not lynching would be in our best interests (like if there was one mafia), and he did these calculations to see if this also applied to our situation. And now we know it doesn't.

Chill out guys :P
Right.

Derekku Chan wrote:

strager wrote:

Also, some games only have one Mafia and some have three or more. (I know this specific game has two Mafia, but the game of Mafia doesn't have that ultimate rule. I was stating an example earlier.)
Then what's the fucking point of going through all of this? This game of mafia has TWO people as mafia. =|

EDIT: It should be common sense that it's a bad choice. =)
Observe my post with my final results. >_>
Derekku
In that one situation with 1 mafia where it would be better to not lynch day 1, it doesn't make sense to me. How would that work? If you don't lynch day 1, the mafia gets a free kill. At least by lynching day 1 you have a chance of killing the mafia.
anonymous_old
This map has been deleted on the request of its creator. It is no longer available.
anonymous_old
I feel obligated to post this, hopefully to clarify what some players may know from experience or whatever:

#forumshit wrote:

20:56 < BagelBob> strager
20:57 < strager> yo
20:57 < BagelBob> the reason that it turns out that no lynch is good for your 1 maf 7 town
20:57 < BagelBob> is because it's an even number of people
20:57 < strager> I know
20:57 < strager> But I know that only for one-Mafia games.
20:57 < strager> I wanted to check for OUR games.
20:57 < BagelBob> we have an odd number of people
BagelBob

strager wrote:

I feel obligated to post this, hopefully to clarify what some players may know from experience or whatever:

#forumshit wrote:

20:56 < BagelBob> strager
20:57 < strager> yo
20:57 < BagelBob> the reason that it turns out that no lynch is good for your 1 maf 7 town
20:57 < BagelBob> is because it's an even number of people
20:57 < strager> I know
20:57 < strager> But I know that only for one-Mafia games.
20:57 < strager> I wanted to check for OUR games.
20:57 < BagelBob> we have an odd number of people
Right, because if we did have 1 scum and 7 town, if we lynced every day, lylo would be 3 town 1 scum, instead of 2 town 1 scum. What you keep posting is an 8 person game. We do not have an 8 person game. Stop posting code.
0_o
This map has been deleted on the request of its creator. It is no longer available.
Yuukari-Banteki

0_o wrote:

EDIT: and if you think about it, his theory on strager's bandwagon (Echo, SFG, adam, nardi) does make some sense. Wouldn't you think a mafia member would jump at the chance to lynch the potential doctor? I think it's very likely that both of the mafia members are in that group.
this does make sense, im going to go back to voting on adam like i should have been doing all along. 67% chance of hitting a mafia sounds great to me, and since im pretty sure Echo is vanilla, that means adam and nardi are the mafia members.

tl;dr vote adam, FOS nardi
Topic Starter
LadySuburu
Votecount 5:

strager - 3 (adam, nardi, Echo)
adam - 2 (0_o, SFG)
SFG - 1 (BagelBob)
nardi - 1 (Derekku)

Not voting: 2 - (Olinad, strager)

Fixed, and now when I copypasta it'll be fixed.
anonymous_old
K moar:

#forumshit wrote:

20:21 < strager> I try to help you guys but you discredit me entirely
20:21 < strager> Because it's "common sense"
20:23 < Derekku_Chan> I just don't understand
20:23 < Derekku_Chan> What you were trying to do
20:23 < Derekku_Chan> :/
20:24 < strager|irc> viewtopic.php?p=142855#p142855
20:24 < strager|irc> Read the first white box
20:24 < Derekku_Chan> Yes, I see
20:24 < strager|irc> and the bold after that
20:24 < Derekku_Chan> Yes
20:25 < Derekku_Chan> I just don't get what the point of coding it to check it was
20:25 < Derekku_Chan> >_>
20:25 < strager|irc> viewtopic.php?p=142843#p142843
20:25 < strager|irc> it is POSSIBLE for SOME GAMES for "common sense" to be wrong
20:25 < strager|irc> I was checking if that was the case for THIS GAME.
20:26 < Derekku_Chan> but still, it's a free kill for mafia
20:26 < Derekku_Chan> so i don't get the point
20:26 < Derekku_Chan> lynch or be killed, that's how the game works xd
20:27 < strager|irc> STATISTICS.
20:27 < strager|irc> 20:25 < strager|irc> it is POSSIBLE for SOME GAMES for "common sense" to be wrong
20:27 < Derekku_Chan> Whatever
20:27 < Derekku_Chan> Sorry to upset you
20:27 < strager|irc> And thus statistically it is in the best interest of the town to not vote for the first day
20:28 < strager|irc> in that situation
20:28 < Derekku_Chan> Even though that makes no sense to me
20:28 < Derekku_Chan> :<
20:28 < strager|irc> Then stop posting about things you don't understand
20:28 < strager|irc> Well
20:28 < strager|irc> Stop discrediting things you don't understand.
20:32 < Derekku_Chan> Well, you were supposed to explain it :>
20:33 < strager|irc> I DID.
20:33 < strager|irc> Unless you wanted to know how it works
20:33 < Derekku_Chan> Pretty much
20:33 < strager|irc> In which case I never got that hint.
20:33 < strager|irc> Post asking
20:35 < Derekku_Chan> post'd
20:35 < strager|irc> Coding the program to tell how it thinks
20:35 < strager|irc> atn
20:35 < strager|irc> atm
20:35 < Derekku_Chan> xd

[later]

21:15 < Derekku_Chan> OH
21:15 < Derekku_Chan> that's what you mean
21:16 < Derekku_Chan> but still, at least you'd have a chance of killing someone if you lynched day 1
21:16 < Derekku_Chan> so it really doesnt matter xd
21:16 < Derekku_Chan> killing mafia*
21:16 < strager|irc> Derekku_Chan: Yes
21:16 < strager|irc> Derekku_Chan: That's handled in the probability
Unrelated chat removed. If you want the logs verbatum just ask.
anonymous_old

BagelBob wrote:

strager wrote:

I feel obligated to post this, hopefully to clarify what some players may know from experience or whatever:

#forumshit wrote:

20:56 < BagelBob> strager
20:57 < strager> yo
20:57 < BagelBob> the reason that it turns out that no lynch is good for your 1 maf 7 town
20:57 < BagelBob> is because it's an even number of people
20:57 < strager> I know
20:57 < strager> But I know that only for one-Mafia games.
20:57 < strager> I wanted to check for OUR games.
20:57 < BagelBob> we have an odd number of people
Right, because if we did have 1 scum and 7 town, if we lynced every day, lylo would be 3 town 1 scum, instead of 2 town 1 scum. What you keep posting is an 8 person game. We do not have an 8 person game. Stop posting code.
My final results are based on the four possible game setups.

0_o wrote:

Actually, I think your numbers may be off strager, if you scroll down here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki?title=Talk ... party_game)
it says that 9 players with 2 mafia, the town has approximately 21.5% shot at winning.
With 8 players and 2 mafia, it's 29.8%.

So this means that from a statistical point of view, our odds in fact do go up if we choose not to lynch, since it will make it an even number of players (which is conformed to have better odds)
I personally trust my code more than such low percentages. That'd be a VERY unbalanced game.

EDIT: Actually I don't trust my code for the roleblocker part but I'm not pro at statistics there.
0_o
This map has been deleted on the request of its creator. It is no longer available.
show more
Please sign in to reply.

New reply