It was more of a relative scale than an absolute scale. 40% is more like, "meh, he's acting more of a Townie than a Mafia."
So strager you're almost certain I'm human, so you stuck me at 40% with BagelBob?
I'm basically thinking aloud and leaving only the first and third option open. (It was also like 03:19 so I was pretty wonky then.)
Echo wrote:I never ever get the point of listing out all the possibilities. Well of course it's one of the three.
strager wrote:I realized now that when I had four players voting for me, no one jumped on the bandwagon for the lynch. This means one of these:
Both Mafia were on the bandwagon already.
I am a Mafia and the other Mafia may or may not have been on the bandwagon. If he was, he would have certainly jumped off at L-1 and probably at L-2.
One or no Mafia were on the bandwagon and the remaining Mafia could not vote to lynch in time.
I am of course striking off the second and am thinking the first is more likely than the third.
Now, if you list only two out of three, for example, and say why the third can't be possible, with evidence, then that's a totally different story.
In the first case I deduce one of these to be a Mafia: adam, SFG, nardi
In the third case I deduce these are probably NOT Mafia (because they didn't jump on the bandwagon): Derekku, 0_o
For the first case it seems as if adam's vote was random and SFG's vote was only somewhat random, as was nardi's. So my suspicions for the latter two are above my suspicions for adam. From that I really can't say much more though.
For the third case, 0_o seems to be really trying to defend me which either means he's deceitful (and will kill me at night) or genuinely trying to help the town. I'm not foolish enough to denounce the former but based on my observation above he may be a Townie more than a Mafia.
I really don't know what to think of Derekku because he hasn't been doing much from what I can see, really. He could be bad at analysis, not have information to discuss, or is smart enough not to talk because he may leak information. So ... not really sure.
Interestingly this is almost opposite of my previous suspicion list. I believe my thinking then was leaning toward the third case but I didn't reference posts or anything when I wrote it, so it was purely out of feeling.
So I don't know what I should believe. My gut, or my reasoning? Probably my reasoning. (My gut feelings seem to have gotten me burned before, a la Echo's hate of my adam-is-a-Townie conclusion.)