Newbie Mafia 2! [Mafia Win!]

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Echo
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anonymous_old

adam2046 wrote:

ok...
So strager you're almost certain I'm human, so you stuck me at 40% with BagelBob?
It was more of a relative scale than an absolute scale. 40% is more like, "meh, he's acting more of a Townie than a Mafia."

Echo wrote:

strager wrote:

I realized now that when I had four players voting for me, no one jumped on the bandwagon for the lynch. This means one of these:

Both Mafia were on the bandwagon already.
I am a Mafia and the other Mafia may or may not have been on the bandwagon. If he was, he would have certainly jumped off at L-1 and probably at L-2.
One or no Mafia were on the bandwagon and the remaining Mafia could not vote to lynch in time.

I am of course striking off the second and am thinking the first is more likely than the third.
I never ever get the point of listing out all the possibilities. Well of course it's one of the three.

Now, if you list only two out of three, for example, and say why the third can't be possible, with evidence, then that's a totally different story.
I'm basically thinking aloud and leaving only the first and third option open. (It was also like 03:19 so I was pretty wonky then.)

In the first case I deduce one of these to be a Mafia: adam, SFG, nardi
In the third case I deduce these are probably NOT Mafia (because they didn't jump on the bandwagon): Derekku, 0_o

For the first case it seems as if adam's vote was random and SFG's vote was only somewhat random, as was nardi's. So my suspicions for the latter two are above my suspicions for adam. From that I really can't say much more though.

For the third case, 0_o seems to be really trying to defend me which either means he's deceitful (and will kill me at night) or genuinely trying to help the town. I'm not foolish enough to denounce the former but based on my observation above he may be a Townie more than a Mafia.
I really don't know what to think of Derekku because he hasn't been doing much from what I can see, really. He could be bad at analysis, not have information to discuss, or is smart enough not to talk because he may leak information. So ... not really sure.

Interestingly this is almost opposite of my previous suspicion list. I believe my thinking then was leaning toward the third case but I didn't reference posts or anything when I wrote it, so it was purely out of feeling.

So I don't know what I should believe. My gut, or my reasoning? Probably my reasoning. (My gut feelings seem to have gotten me burned before, a la Echo's hate of my adam-is-a-Townie conclusion.)
Echo

strager wrote:

For the first case it seems as if adam's vote was random
Where does it seem random?

strager wrote:

and SFG's vote was only somewhat random
Where does it seem random?

strager wrote:

as was nardi's.
Where does it seem random?

strager wrote:

0_o seems to be really trying to defend me which either means he's deceitful
Where does it seem deceitful?

strager wrote:

or genuinely trying to help the town.
Where does he seem helpful?

strager wrote:

Probably my reasoning.
The problem, as you adequately put it, is that you "didn't reference posts or anything when I wrote it, so it was purely out of feeling." Feelings can't prove anything.
anonymous_old

Echo wrote:

strager wrote:

For the first case it seems as if adam's vote was random
Where does it seem random?

strager wrote:

and SFG's vote was only somewhat random
Where does it seem random?

strager wrote:

as was nardi's.
Where does it seem random?
"I'll just vote for whoever seems the most suspicious without any evidence."

Echo wrote:

strager wrote:

0_o seems to be really trying to defend me which either means he's deceitful
Where does it seem deceitful?
Get on my good side then eventually kill me at night.

Echo wrote:

strager wrote:

or genuinely trying to help the town.
Where does he seem helpful?
Defend the Doctor.

Echo wrote:

strager wrote:

Probably my reasoning.
The problem, as you adequately put it, is that you "didn't reference posts or anything when I wrote it, so it was purely out of feeling." Feelings can't prove anything.
You're supporting what I said about the random votes.

And yes, I do realize I made a mistake in posting that list. Now I posted a pseudolist with some reasoning.
Topic Starter
LadySuburu
Votecount 4:

strager - 3 (adam, nardi, Echo)
adam - 2 (0_o, SFG)
SFG - 1 (BagelBob)

Not voting: 3 - (Olinad, Derekku, Strager)
0_o
*sigh*

I'm starting to tldr this Echo-strager exchange, it just keeps going and circles and it just feels like it isn't getting anywhere.

Can the people who have not voted please hurry up and make a decision, this is just getting ridiculous...

Sorry if I sound impatient, but honestly, I am :P
BagelBob

strager wrote:

I have these suspicion percentages (0 - definitely Townie; 100 - definitely Mafia; 50 - undecided):
adam - 40%
BagelBob - 40%
nadi - 40%
SFG - 40%
Olinad - 50%
Derekku - 60%
0_o - 65%
Echo - 100%

These are estimates of course but shows my relative suspicions for everyone.

Yes, I am 100% sure Echo is a Mafia.
All of this is completely baseless. Could you provide any reasoning at all for these numbers? I realize you say later that you changed your mind, but at this time, what made you choose these numbers? Do you have any reasons for Echo being 100% mafia? Why are Derekku and 0_o above 50? Why are the rest of us above 50?



This post is full of nothings. First, you say you come to two realizations. Then, you don't post them, and say you'll remove them from your post. Next, you quote Echo and restate his post. In your last section, you present a logical fallacy known as false dichotomy. Those are not the only options, there could have been one voting for you and mafia could have any reasons for voting or not voting for you. With this and all your short posts, it's like your posting without saying anything.



Can I assume from This post that you no longer consider Echo a mafia member? In addition, did you mean that adam, SFG, and nardii's votes looked like bandwagon votes? You state that you think 0_o and Derekuu were not on the bandwagon, but then you throw junk about random voting. Adam's vote started out random, but he kept posting and saying that he was reading the thread and agreed with Echo's logic.
BagelBob
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adam2046
SFG is not voting me because of 0_o, I do not find it said anywhere.
anonymous_old

BagelBob wrote:

strager wrote:

I have these suspicion percentages (0 - definitely Townie; 100 - definitely Mafia; 50 - undecided):
adam - 40%
BagelBob - 40%
nadi - 40%
SFG - 40%
Olinad - 50%
Derekku - 60%
0_o - 65%
Echo - 100%

These are estimates of course but shows my relative suspicions for everyone.

Yes, I am 100% sure Echo is a Mafia.
All of this is completely baseless. Could you provide any reasoning at all for these numbers? I realize you say later that you changed your mind, but at this time, what made you choose these numbers? Do you have any reasons for Echo being 100% mafia? Why are Derekku and 0_o above 50? Why are the rest of us above 50?
The numbers were just to state relative suspicions. nardi is less suspicious than 0_o, for example. I used numbers instead of a simple list to group similarly suspicious people together (the 40%'s) and to point out Echo as a Mafia more than just "most suspicious." Again, looking back it was a pretty dumb thing to do.

BagelBob wrote:

Do you have any reasons for Echo being 100% mafia?
See my pseudo-raging (link).

BagelBob wrote:

This post is full of nothings. First, you say you come to two realizations. Then, you don't post them, and say you'll remove them from your post.
Actually those first three lines were saying "I totally misread your post so I deleted what I had here before." I thought he was asking me how he voted for me, which kinda confused me so I came back to it later then realized what he meant.

I could have left those three lines out, but it was so late I wasn't thinking too strait (see all my late-night posts). I should stop posting so late. x_x

BagelBob wrote:

Next, you quote Echo and restate his post.
Yes, I was explaining why I said something, because Echo asked for an explanation (Echo's quote expanded for clarification):

strager wrote:

Echo wrote:

strager wrote:

But you have to assume I am a Mafia otherwise you'd be killing a Townie. (Just to mention.)
More backwards trickiness from strager.

My thinking leads me to believe you're mafia which THEN results in my lynch vote.

You're saying I'm voting to lynch you which THEN makes me try to push the idea you're mafia? o.O
No I'm not saying that. I meant that your statement:

Echo wrote:

I'm pretty sure that strager is not doctor, which is why I'm voting him.
Meant "I'm pretty sure strager is a Mafia, which is why I'm voting for him."

BagelBob wrote:

In your last section, you present a logical fallacy known as false dichotomy. Those are not the only options, there could have been one voting for you and mafia could have any reasons for voting or not voting for you. With this and all your short posts, it's like your posting without saying anything.
Ah, I had not even considered this. I would expect the Mafia to try and kill a Townie as soon as the chance arises. I don't see a reason why they wouldn't so it'd be nice if you could point at least one out.

BagelBob wrote:

Can I assume from This post that you no longer consider Echo a mafia member?
No, I already deduced Echo as a Mafia so you can squeeze that info in there if you want.

BagelBob wrote:

In addition, did you mean that adam, SFG, and nardii's votes looked like bandwagon votes?
All I meant to say there that one or two of adam, Echo, nardi, and SFG were bandwagonning as a Mafia, not all of them.

BagelBob wrote:

You state that you think 0_o and Derekuu were not on the bandwagon, but then you throw junk about random voting.
Where is this "junk about random voting?"

BagelBob wrote:

Adam's vote started out random, but he kept posting and saying that he was reading the thread and agreed with Echo's logic.
And this matters how? I already know this.

BagelBob wrote:

SFG, you've said you're going with adam since 0_o said he finds him suspicious. All I can find is that his gut says that. Are you satisfied lynching someone who you think is a townie?
I have to agree here; it's as if you're voting at random with "support" from another player. The number of votes on one's head shouldn't be used as a reason for voting.

EDIT:

adam2046 wrote:

SFG is not voting me because of 0_o, I do not find it said anywhere.
I just went with BagelBob on the above. I'll investigate myself.

EDIT: Here it is (link), at least what I think BagelBob is referring to.
BagelBob

adam2046 wrote:

SFG is not voting me because of 0_o, I do not find it said anywhere.

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

well i suppose i am a bit suspicious because when you were mafia last game i couldnt tell that you were at ALL. i think it might have been nardi that pointed a FOS at adam or maybe the FOS wa-oh fuck it let me go find the post

yeah 0_o pointed a FOS at adam and nardi and i chose adam.

also im lol'ing about how you guys are trying to pick apart logic that doesn't exist @_@ also im sick of vote-hopping which is why i havent changed it
kthx

EDIT: Didn't see page 18, looks like strager caught it
anonymous_old

LadySuburu wrote:

Not voting: 3 - (Olinad, Derekku, Strager)
*strager
adam2046
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0_o
tldr in bold, but it'd be nice if you read the details as well :P

Bagelbob wrote:

0_o, why are you in such a hurry? Is it because you were buddying with strager earlier?
Not sure how me being impatient and me defending strager are correlated...
And to answer your question I'm impatient because I've been sitting here reading Echo and strager go back and forth with loooong arguments for days and I feel like there hasn't been any progress. I'm getting bored; I just want to get the game moving.
You haven't posted much in the way of cases. In fact, your reason for voting adam, is it still your gut?
Now that WWG3 is over I can actually say this: IMO he's been acting similar to when he was in WWG3, and I knew he was a wolf then because I was a wolf myself ;)
Though now that I think about it, you could probably use the exact same logic against me... lol, well then :P
Oh well, I'm not confident enough to vote for Echo, and I feel like I don't have a case against anyone else, so yes, right now I guess it's mainly just my gut instincts against adam ^_^ if someone else happens to jump my radar then I will gladly change my vote, but right now he's just the only person I feel comfortable with voting for.
I'd like it if you could state your opinions on strager. Do you think that he is telling the truth about being the doctor?
Um, correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure almost every post I've made so far has said my opinion on strager :P He isn't a zero on my suspicion-o-meter that's for sure, but I think the odds of him being the doctor are worth keeping him around at least for today.
If yes, do you think Echo is a mafia member?.
I can't say for sure he isn't mafia, but I feel like our differing opinions are based mainly on different interpretations of strager's posts, and again, I'm not gonna vote for someone just because they have a different opinion than me.
it looks to me like you're trying to stay out of the whole mess
I haven't posted lately because I've had nothing to say; we've hardly made any progress in the last few pages (until now), and I've already stated my opinions on the Echo-strager/adam issue several times over.

Anything else? :)
adam2046
Did you bother looking in the first Mafia thread?
Derekku
Both olinad and nardi have both pretty much contributed NOTHING to this topic's discussion.

BUT

nardi11011 wrote:

It's annoying that 90% of the posts in mafia/ww game threads are made when I'm either asleep or at school. Anyway, I vote strager as he seems the most suspicious to me and this game is confusing as hell compared to WWG.
he was quick to jump on the bangwagon and vote for strager without any reasoning or proof.

I'm not even counting that as a "random" vote because he hasn't even come back to say otherwise.

Vote: nardi.
anonymous_old

adam2046 wrote:

So you're no longer certain I'm human Strager, right?
I've stated this a while ago.

0_o wrote:

If yes, do you think Echo is a mafia member?.
I can't say for sure he isn't mafia
It looks like you're dodging the question there. Why?

Derekku Chan wrote:

Both olinad and nardi have both pretty much contributed NOTHING to this topic's discussion.

BUT

nardi11011 wrote:

It's annoying that 90% of the posts in mafia/ww game threads are made when I'm either asleep or at school. Anyway, I vote strager as he seems the most suspicious to me and this game is confusing as hell compared to WWG.
he was quick to jump on the bangwagon and vote for strager without any reasoning or proof.
What bangwagon? ;P

I have to agree but as a Mafia why would he do this at L-2 and not L-1? (I asked BagelBob this in my last "real" post.)

nardi11011 wrote:

I'm not even counting that as a "random" vote because he hasn't even come back to say otherwise.
Because no one accused it of not being a random vote? He was never attacked so he wouldn't defend himself. If he did defend himself in advanced that'd looks suspicious because it'd seem as if he had something to hide.

No one's random vote was explicitly denoted as a random vote by the voter, either.

So I don't really see your reasoning here Derekku.
adam2046
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BagelBob
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Derekku

strager wrote:

What bangwagon? ;P
By the time nardi voted for you, strager, two other people had voted for you. He seemed to only vote for you because you were the "most suspicious", which isn't a good reason imo.

strager wrote:

No one's random vote was explicitly denoted as a random vote by the voter, either.
I meant in the case that nardi's vote WAS a random vote, which I don't think it was, but I wanted to cover that ground ;)
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