Newbie Mafia 2! [Mafia Win!]

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0_o
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Echo

strager wrote:

These are estimates of course but shows my relative suspicions for everyone.
So everyone is 40% mafia.

strager wrote:

Yes, I am 100% sure Echo is a Mafia.
Lynch me~!

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

Echo, why are you voting for strager after specifically stating that Day 1 was a bad time to lynch an important aux claim?
Basically what adam said - I'm pretty sure that strager is not doctor, which is why I'm voting him.
anonymous_old

0_o wrote:

OK, could you PLEASE explain why I am the second most suspicious person for BELIEVING and DEFENDING you? It seems like if you were the doctor then you wouldn't find me wanting to keep you alive so much suspicious...
Right. =X

But that doesn't matter now because I'm more concerned about getting a known Mafia lynched.

My opinions will likely change as more things come about.

Echo wrote:

strager wrote:

These are estimates of course but shows my relative suspicions for everyone.
So everyone is 40% mafia.
What?

Echo wrote:

strager wrote:

Yes, I am 100% sure Echo is a Mafia.
Lynch me~!
I'll ignore that, just as I ignored adam's.

Echo wrote:

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

Echo, why are you voting for strager after specifically stating that Day 1 was a bad time to lynch an important aux claim?
Basically what adam said - I'm pretty sure that strager is not doctor, which is why I'm voting him.
But you have to assume I am a Mafia otherwise you'd be killing a Townie. (Just to mention.)
anonymous_old
I have decided to do something I said I wouldn't do.

Unvote
Echo

strager wrote:

But you have to assume I am a Mafia otherwise you'd be killing a Townie. (Just to mention.)
More backwards trickiness from strager.

My thinking leads me to believe you're mafia which THEN results in my lynch vote.

You're saying I'm voting to lynch you which THEN makes me try to push the idea you're mafia? o.O
Derekku
WIFOM WIFOM WIFOM WIFOM

*head is spinning*
anonymous_old
Actually when proofreading this I noticed you may have gotten me wrong on the sequence of events.

Actually when proofreading this I noticed I was compeletely misunderstanding your statement.

Actually I think I'll just remove that part about me trying to make you understand based of my own misunderstandings of what you misunderstand.

ANYWAY, it's gone now and here's what I really need to say.

Echo wrote:

My thinking leads me to believe you're mafia which THEN results in my lynch vote.

You're saying I'm voting to lynch you which THEN makes me try to push the idea you're mafia? o.O
No I'm not saying that. I meant that your statement:

Echo wrote:

I'm pretty sure that strager is not doctor, which is why I'm voting him.
Meant "I'm pretty sure strager is a Mafia, which is why I'm voting for him."

----------

I realized now that when I had four players voting for me, no one jumped on the bandwagon for the lynch. This means one of these:

Both Mafia were on the bandwagon already.
I am a Mafia and the other Mafia may or may not have been on the bandwagon. If he was, he would have certainly jumped off at L-1 and probably at L-2.
One or no Mafia were on the bandwagon and the remaining Mafia could not vote to lynch in time.

I am of course striking off the second and am thinking the first is more likely than the third.
anonymous_old

Derekku Chan wrote:

WIFOM WIFOM WIFOM WIFOM

*head is spinning*
I like it when I run unicow's puffy balls all over my face.
Derekku

strager wrote:

Derekku Chan wrote:

WIFOM WIFOM WIFOM WIFOM

*head is spinning*
I like it when I run unicow's puffy balls all over my face.
I bet you do. :> Also you said this 25 minutes too early. I JUST got to that part. XP

[/offtopic]
anonymous_old
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adam2046
ok...
So strager you're almost certain I'm human, so you stuck me at 40% with BagelBob?
Echo
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anonymous_old

adam2046 wrote:

ok...
So strager you're almost certain I'm human, so you stuck me at 40% with BagelBob?
It was more of a relative scale than an absolute scale. 40% is more like, "meh, he's acting more of a Townie than a Mafia."

Echo wrote:

strager wrote:

I realized now that when I had four players voting for me, no one jumped on the bandwagon for the lynch. This means one of these:

Both Mafia were on the bandwagon already.
I am a Mafia and the other Mafia may or may not have been on the bandwagon. If he was, he would have certainly jumped off at L-1 and probably at L-2.
One or no Mafia were on the bandwagon and the remaining Mafia could not vote to lynch in time.

I am of course striking off the second and am thinking the first is more likely than the third.
I never ever get the point of listing out all the possibilities. Well of course it's one of the three.

Now, if you list only two out of three, for example, and say why the third can't be possible, with evidence, then that's a totally different story.
I'm basically thinking aloud and leaving only the first and third option open. (It was also like 03:19 so I was pretty wonky then.)

In the first case I deduce one of these to be a Mafia: adam, SFG, nardi
In the third case I deduce these are probably NOT Mafia (because they didn't jump on the bandwagon): Derekku, 0_o

For the first case it seems as if adam's vote was random and SFG's vote was only somewhat random, as was nardi's. So my suspicions for the latter two are above my suspicions for adam. From that I really can't say much more though.

For the third case, 0_o seems to be really trying to defend me which either means he's deceitful (and will kill me at night) or genuinely trying to help the town. I'm not foolish enough to denounce the former but based on my observation above he may be a Townie more than a Mafia.
I really don't know what to think of Derekku because he hasn't been doing much from what I can see, really. He could be bad at analysis, not have information to discuss, or is smart enough not to talk because he may leak information. So ... not really sure.

Interestingly this is almost opposite of my previous suspicion list. I believe my thinking then was leaning toward the third case but I didn't reference posts or anything when I wrote it, so it was purely out of feeling.

So I don't know what I should believe. My gut, or my reasoning? Probably my reasoning. (My gut feelings seem to have gotten me burned before, a la Echo's hate of my adam-is-a-Townie conclusion.)
Echo

strager wrote:

For the first case it seems as if adam's vote was random
Where does it seem random?

strager wrote:

and SFG's vote was only somewhat random
Where does it seem random?

strager wrote:

as was nardi's.
Where does it seem random?

strager wrote:

0_o seems to be really trying to defend me which either means he's deceitful
Where does it seem deceitful?

strager wrote:

or genuinely trying to help the town.
Where does he seem helpful?

strager wrote:

Probably my reasoning.
The problem, as you adequately put it, is that you "didn't reference posts or anything when I wrote it, so it was purely out of feeling." Feelings can't prove anything.
anonymous_old

Echo wrote:

strager wrote:

For the first case it seems as if adam's vote was random
Where does it seem random?

strager wrote:

and SFG's vote was only somewhat random
Where does it seem random?

strager wrote:

as was nardi's.
Where does it seem random?
"I'll just vote for whoever seems the most suspicious without any evidence."

Echo wrote:

strager wrote:

0_o seems to be really trying to defend me which either means he's deceitful
Where does it seem deceitful?
Get on my good side then eventually kill me at night.

Echo wrote:

strager wrote:

or genuinely trying to help the town.
Where does he seem helpful?
Defend the Doctor.

Echo wrote:

strager wrote:

Probably my reasoning.
The problem, as you adequately put it, is that you "didn't reference posts or anything when I wrote it, so it was purely out of feeling." Feelings can't prove anything.
You're supporting what I said about the random votes.

And yes, I do realize I made a mistake in posting that list. Now I posted a pseudolist with some reasoning.
Topic Starter
LadySuburu
Votecount 4:

strager - 3 (adam, nardi, Echo)
adam - 2 (0_o, SFG)
SFG - 1 (BagelBob)

Not voting: 3 - (Olinad, Derekku, Strager)
0_o
*sigh*

I'm starting to tldr this Echo-strager exchange, it just keeps going and circles and it just feels like it isn't getting anywhere.

Can the people who have not voted please hurry up and make a decision, this is just getting ridiculous...

Sorry if I sound impatient, but honestly, I am :P
BagelBob

strager wrote:

I have these suspicion percentages (0 - definitely Townie; 100 - definitely Mafia; 50 - undecided):
adam - 40%
BagelBob - 40%
nadi - 40%
SFG - 40%
Olinad - 50%
Derekku - 60%
0_o - 65%
Echo - 100%

These are estimates of course but shows my relative suspicions for everyone.

Yes, I am 100% sure Echo is a Mafia.
All of this is completely baseless. Could you provide any reasoning at all for these numbers? I realize you say later that you changed your mind, but at this time, what made you choose these numbers? Do you have any reasons for Echo being 100% mafia? Why are Derekku and 0_o above 50? Why are the rest of us above 50?



This post is full of nothings. First, you say you come to two realizations. Then, you don't post them, and say you'll remove them from your post. Next, you quote Echo and restate his post. In your last section, you present a logical fallacy known as false dichotomy. Those are not the only options, there could have been one voting for you and mafia could have any reasons for voting or not voting for you. With this and all your short posts, it's like your posting without saying anything.



Can I assume from This post that you no longer consider Echo a mafia member? In addition, did you mean that adam, SFG, and nardii's votes looked like bandwagon votes? You state that you think 0_o and Derekuu were not on the bandwagon, but then you throw junk about random voting. Adam's vote started out random, but he kept posting and saying that he was reading the thread and agreed with Echo's logic.
BagelBob
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adam2046
SFG is not voting me because of 0_o, I do not find it said anywhere.
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