you CAN'T lynch the survivor on day two. If we lynch the lyncher today, then the maf will shoot not you and not salvage because he's the guard so fool, and then vivor and maf can force a lynch on the one remaining player, the guard. We HAVE to lynch survivor today, or maf and vivor joint.
If you lynch the survivor today then the mafia will shoot either the lyncher or jester. This assumes the lyncher hasn't already won (which is why Wojjan is so eager for me to be killed)
Say the lyncher is hit; then you're left with a mafia, jester and guard. In this case the jester has to decide who is going to win with basically a 0% chance to win.
If jester is hit; then you've got mafia, lyncher and guard. If the lynchee is alive then there is a huge chance of the lyncher winning. If not then same as above.
If you lynch mafia today then no one will get shot. But you give the Guard a 66% chance of winning straight out (which is why Salvage is so eager to lynch the mafia). This assumes that they are not the lynchee (again, convenient to Wojjan)
Day 2 will play out as;
The survivor has a 66% chance of winning.
Lyncher has a 25% (less because by then the guard is confirmed lynchee) chance to win.
Jester has a 25% chance to win.
Guard has a 25% chance to win.
By that stage NO ONE in their right mind will lynch the guard. So you're down to Lyncher, Jester, Survivor. No one will know who the survivor is so it's a game of chance there with a 66% chance of a survivor win. Assuming you don't fail at that you go into -> Guard, Lyncher, Jester. Guard wins on lyncher death, lyncher wins on guard death and jester wins on jester death. It'll be a perpetual stalemate.
If we lynch the lyncher there is no chance of ANY instant wins;
Mafia goes random on jester or survivor. If survivor dies then jester/guard/mafia. Mafia and jester can joint win. Guard can solo win. Or mafia can solo win.
If jester shot; guard/mafia/survivor - Guard can joint with the survivor, mafia can joint with the survivor or the mafia can win.
--------Actually I'll cut a deal
. Assuming we lynch the lyncher (0% chance of anyone losing) I'll shoot Salvage tonight (if the game works like normal BP's, he will know if I don't). We can mod ask too if needed. That will leave us with mafia/guard/jester/survivor. This will produce a similar situation to lynching the mafia except the survivor will only have a 50% chance to win instead of 66% AND no instant win. This works out better for all parties involved, minus the lyncher.
Then from there you can decide who wins or joint wins.
Shantotto is my hero. (.o^.^).o