you CAN'T lynch the survivor on day two. If we lynch the lyncher today, then the maf will shoot not you and not salvage because he's the guard so fool, and then vivor and maf can force a lynch on the one remaining player, the guard. We HAVE to lynch survivor today, or maf and vivor joint.

they won't force a lynch on me but force a lynch on each other and in that case one of them wins anyways so we have to lynch survivor or mafia, we have confirmed mafia so that's why im saying fucking lynch mafia but we can go for the riskness of hit jester and try to lynch survivor

okay Vote: Rantai

weren't u so sure he wasn't mafia

I think he's survivor, you think he's maf, but either way we want him dead.

If you lynch the survivor today then the mafia will shoot either the lyncher or jester. This assumes the lyncher hasn't already won (which is why Wojjan is so eager for me to be killed)

Say the lyncher is hit; then you're left with a mafia, jester and guard. In this case the jester has to decide who is going to win with basically a 0% chance to win.

If jester is hit; then you've got mafia, lyncher and guard. If the lynchee is alive then there is a huge chance of the lyncher winning. If not then same as above.

If you lynch mafia today then no one will get shot. But you give the Guard a 66% chance of winning straight out (which is why Salvage is so eager to lynch the mafia). This assumes that they are not the lynchee (again, convenient to Wojjan)

Day 2 will play out as;

The survivor has a 66% chance of winning.
Lyncher has a 25% (less because by then the guard is confirmed lynchee) chance to win.
Jester has a 25% chance to win.
Guard has a 25% chance to win.

By that stage NO ONE in their right mind will lynch the guard. So you're down to Lyncher, Jester, Survivor. No one will know who the survivor is so it's a game of chance there with a 66% chance of a survivor win. Assuming you don't fail at that you go into -> Guard, Lyncher, Jester. Guard wins on lyncher death, lyncher wins on guard death and jester wins on jester death. It'll be a perpetual stalemate.

If we lynch the lyncher there is no chance of ANY instant wins;

Mafia goes random on jester or survivor. If survivor dies then jester/guard/mafia. Mafia and jester can joint win. Guard can solo win. Or mafia can solo win.

If jester shot; guard/mafia/survivor - Guard can joint with the survivor, mafia can joint with the survivor or the mafia can win.
--------

Actually I'll cut a deal. Assuming we lynch the lyncher (0% chance of anyone losing) I'll shoot Salvage tonight (if the game works like normal BP's, he will know if I don't). We can mod ask too if needed. That will leave us with mafia/guard/jester/survivor. This will produce a similar situation to lynching the mafia except the survivor will only have a 50% chance to win instead of 66% AND no instant win. This works out better for all parties involved, minus the lyncher.

Then from there you can decide who wins or joint wins.

vote: No Lynch




missed th thread sry.

Pretty sure no lynch helps no one but the survivor. Looking back at my spreadsheet, if I miss the survivor we've (ie anyone other than the survivor) got less chance to win than if we followed the lyncher lynch path. Actually you as the guard will have the worst chance to win out of all of us.

unless u hit the survivor but that's the only good outcome yeah


unvote

sry salvage I let you get your free ride off me for as long as it's gonna happen

roleclaim guard

salvage is probably the lyncher which is why I was on him from the beginning, still betting on rantai as the lynchee
bmin is survivor
rantai is mafia
wojjan is jester

I figured as long as rantai wasn't getting lynched there was no reason to claim, but if d2's coming as "no one's gonna lynch the guard" then there's no reason for me not to

you can shoot me tonight to prove it

ok shoot chris tonight to proove it i'm the guard ^__^



do not lynch chris btw he's the jester.

well not really he could be survivor trying to seem jester


either way we should lynch either bmin or wojjan today and rantai shoots chris

salvage is definitely the one to lynch

gogogo

vote: salvage

VOTE COUNT:
Wojjan (1) - bmin11
Rantai (1) - Wojjan
Salvage (1) - Chris
====================================
Not Voting (2) - Salvage, Rantai

AROUND 18 HOURS UNTIL THE DEADLINE.

I don't believe that Wojjan is the survivor, she is way too focused on my lynch.

But hmm Chris is either the survivor trying to ride the guard's immunity or finally counterclaiming (suspiciously late). Both ways though, I'll roll the dice on the shot tonight. The actual guard should be confident that he safe tonight so whoever opposes is not our guard. Leaving bmin as jester.

At least, that's what I have come up with given the info.