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0_o wrote: I think you are wayy overthinking this, Echo was killed because the Cop is much more of a threat to the mafia then the doctor is ![]() That is true, and I think I mentioned that. However, there is still reason to kill me. If a Mafia is lynched today, I protect successfully tonight, there will be four of the Town and one Mafia. Of course, that doesn't matter because we know there is a Role Blocker out there, so I'm pretty much a Vanilla Townie until the Role Blocker is killed. (If the Mafia needs to sacrifice one of themselves for some reason they will chose the Vanilla Mafia for this reason.) SFG, I have considered Derekku myself but I have no real reasoning for it. He's not really doing much. >_> Anyway, time for a breakthrough claim: everything I've said has been truthful, except my certainties on Echo's guilt. (Even then I knew I was wrong. I had fun playing, though. =]) I just had an idea on determining the two Mafia and will look into it and post my findings. |
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Derekku Chan wrote: @strager: I assume you're talking about this post Derekku Chan wrote: I would say how suspicious it is that you guys turned around at the drop of a hat to believe that Echo is the cop, but I think I believe him too. :< There was overwhelming evidence that Echo was a Cop. I doubt you missed all the hints. But that wasn't the post which "proves" it. Derekku Chan wrote: 2) he wasn't giving any good reasoning for his votes And the other reasons you list are reason enough to vote for adam? Derekku Chan wrote: I don't see how I'm betraying anyone o_o D= 0_o, we cannot discredit my bandwagon theory just yet. Although it's mostly debunked (I kinda thing SFG is a Townie, and you sorta think that too?) it's not impossible. Of course, you could have agreed with it early on as a Mafia to try and get lynches on Townies, then back out on your claim, but then again you as a Townie would do the same thing, so that's not a reason to be suspicious of you. I'll investigate more of the past actions later and see if anything springs up about 0_o and SFG. |
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Some notes. These assume I am a Townie and no one will consider voting for me.
Chance to lynch a Mafia today: 2/4 = 1/2 = 50% (It's a Mafia win (basically) if a Mafia is not lynched today.) If I am killed at Night: Chance to lynch a Mafia tomorrow: 1/3 = 33% If I am not killed at Night: Chance to lynch a Mafia tomorrow: 1/2 = 50% So it's pretty safe to say I'm dead tonight. Chance to find the other Mafia to lynch today (if we do lynch a Mafia): 1/3 = 33% So there's no statistical gain in finding who both Mafia are today; only one needs to be found. However, if both can be found today, a day doesn't have to be wasted. Remember, we have my added brain power. =] Tomorrow we are left with 2 Townies and 1 Mafia, so the situation is very sticky there. We could have A voting for B and B voting for A. If A and B are Townies, game over, but if one is a Mafia, there's a 50% chance of a Town win. We could also have A voting for B, B : C, C : A. Instant Mafia win. This late in the game the Mafia wouldn't point fingers at each other too much because that would be very risky. Mafia don't like risky. They are guaranteed a win (basically) if they kill a Townie today. I'll post a full vote log tomorrow, and maybe try to analyze it. I'll encourage others to, too. |
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Saturos-fangirl wrote: ok i just noticed that neither Olinad nor Wojjan ever made a well-informed vote. Well, I don't think you can really say that for anyone. However, he/they doesn't seem to give too much reasoning behind the votes they have made. Saturos-fangirl wrote: we have almost nothing to go on to determine if he is indeed mafia Any information is better than none. Wojjan has made some possible slips (see later here). Saturos-fangirl wrote: So basically we can't afford to guess his role wrong and we don't have any evidence to point us in either direction. Then find at least one Mafia so you can worry about the other tomorrow. Wojjan wrote: 0_o, you're REALLY trying to get all what you say defended with reasons, either you hold an Aux you really don't want us to lose on Day 2, or you're trying to put us up with voting for the wrong guy. I'm still deciding on those scenarios, but I'll have to read this through again. 0_o obviously doesn't have an aux role, but he seemed pretty convinced I was a Doctor, and that has been shown by Echo and his death to be true. He was trying really hard to protect me so I'm not lynched, so I would say that's his reason for being defensive. (Reduced suspicion of 0_o.) Wojjan wrote: Seems like adam got muted after he was pointed out his argumants were baseless, so we could have struck a chord there. I don't see him as a Mafia, mostly because he hasn't tried anything to really defend himself (or I'm missing out on a real important post) Uhh, why isn't he a Mafia again? I have chosen to not defend myself at times. Does that make me a Mafia? (Increased suspicion of Wojjan.) Wojjan wrote: SFG, you're really making sense, but that may just be a cover-up. You've tried every possible angle, and explained all your reasons clearly, without overdoing it. You're least suspicious on my part, but I'm keeping my options open. I have no idea what to think of that comment. Sounds very wishy-washy to me. (Slight increase of suspicion of Wojjan.) Wojjan wrote: Derekku, I don't know what to really make of you. It almost seems as if everything you do is just a step without looking. Well, thay may only be the impression that I get, but it struck me as odd. Perhaps because he doesn't care about the Day? (Slight increase of suspicion of Derekku.) Also, it seems like Wojjan is somewhat defending Derekku, showing that his actions are pretty much arbitrary. (Increased suspicion of Wojjan.) Wojjan wrote: That leaves us with Echo , who is actually gathering a lot of info lately. Do you want me to answer your questions instead of Olinad? If so, I'd be happy to. I can't recall your post as I am writing, so I'll go check while I await your response. Also, you're pretty low on my list. (that means: "Likely Vanilla", FYI) Question was: "can you please rate, in order, who you would vote for out of adam, derekku and 0_o and why?" I would like this answered myself, please. Next up is a vote log. |
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Vote log (There may be mistakes. Please correct me!)
Part 1: viewtopic.php?p=142472#p142472 Part 2: viewtopic.php?p=146326#p146326 Day 1 strager: Echo 0_o: adam adam: strager Echo: SFG 0_o: - 0_o: SFG 0_o: - Echo: - viewtopic.php?p=139863#p139863 SFG: strager 0_o: nardi Echo: strager nardi: strager 0_o: - 0_o: adam Derekku: Echo viewtopic.php?p=140697#p140697 Echo: - SFG: - SFG: Olinad SFG: - SFG: strager SFG: - SFG: adam Derekku: - viewtopic.php?p=141549#p141549 Echo: strager strager: - viewtopic.php?p=142229#p142229 Derekku: nardi SFG: - SFG: adam viewtopic.php?p=142965#p142965 BagelBob: - BagelBob: nardi SFG: - SFG: nardi 0_o: - 0_o: nardi BagelBob: - strager: Echo viewtopic.php?p=143889#p143889 Lynch: nardi (Vanilla Townie) Kill: BagelBob (Vanilla Townie) Day 2 strager: SFG adam: strager SFG: strager strager: - 0_o: adam strager: - strager: 0_o viewtopic.php?p=145936#p145936 Olinad: SFG Derekku: adam new! viewtopic.php?p=147107#p147107 strager: - strager: 0_o Wojjan replaces Olinad viewtopic.php?p=148677#p148677 Wojjan: - Echo: adam 0_o: adam SFG: adam Lynch: adam (Vanilla Townie) Kill: Echo (Cop) Day 3 strager: Derekku |
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Saturos-fangirl wrote: strager wrote: Saturos-fangirl wrote: ok i just noticed that neither Olinad nor Wojjan ever made a well-informed vote. Well, I don't think you can really say that for anyone. However, he/they doesn't seem to give too much reasoning behind the votes they have made. read again. THEY NEVER HAD AN END-OF-DAY VOTE, THE ONLY VOTE EITHER OF THEM MADE WAS PRACTICALLY RANDOM K, I see what you're saying. Derekku's votes: Derekku: Echo Derekku: - Derekku: nardi Notice how he's only voted for Townies thus far. (I know this reasoning doesn't get too far; just something I noticed.) Olinad's/Wojjan's votes: Olinad: SFG Wojjan: - Same here as with Derekku. If someone wants I can go through everyone's votes and mark them as random, possibly random, independently reasoned (thought of their own reasons to vote), or dependently reasoned (used someone elses, or bandwagonning). |
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Like I said before, I acted stupid and got lynched on day 1 in NM1, so it happens."
"
That's why I still hadn't written anything.