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Newbie Mafia 2! [Mafia Win!]

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BagelBob_old
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Derekku

strager wrote:

What bangwagon? ;P
By the time nardi voted for you, strager, two other people had voted for you. He seemed to only vote for you because you were the "most suspicious", which isn't a good reason imo.

strager wrote:

No one's random vote was explicitly denoted as a random vote by the voter, either.
I meant in the case that nardi's vote WAS a random vote, which I don't think it was, but I wanted to cover that ground ;)
adam2046
Derek missed the joke...
Derekku

adam2046 wrote:

The only person jumping strager's bangwagon is Derek.
On the bandwagon against strager? I've already stated many times that I believe strager isn't mafia. :/

If you meant the bandwagon that thinks strager is innocent, then yes, I'm on it, but so is like of us. >_>

So I really don't get what you meant.
adam2046
Derek is still missing the joke...
Derekku
=( It's late and you guys are making fun of me. D:

EDIT: Yeah, I'm not seeing it. *very tired tonight* Hint plz
BagelBob_old

strager wrote:

Derekku Chan wrote:

Both olinad and nardi have both pretty much contributed NOTHING to this topic's discussion.

BUT

nardi11011 wrote:

It's annoying that 90% of the posts in mafia/ww game threads are made when I'm either asleep or at school. Anyway, I vote strager as he seems the most suspicious to me and this game is confusing as hell compared to WWG.
he was quick to jump on the bangwagon and vote for strager without any reasoning or proof.
What bangwagon? ;P

I have to agree but as a Mafia why would he do this at L-2 and not L-1? (I asked BagelBob this in my last "real" post.)

nardi11011 wrote:

I'm not even counting that as a "random" vote because he hasn't even come back to say otherwise.
Because no one accused it of not being a random vote? He was never attacked so he wouldn't defend himself. If he did defend himself in advanced that'd looks suspicious because it'd seem as if he had something to hide.

No one's random vote was explicitly denoted as a random vote by the voter, either.

So I don't really see your reasoning here Derekku.
nardi's vote was not random because he stated he had a general idea and that strager seemed suspicious.
Your vote on Echo and 0_o's vote on adam were random, they have no base. strager's vote is a bandwagon vote, because he votes for the most popular guy without adding anything.
As for his timing, he did it when he did it. No one new jumped on after him.
As for "defending himself in advance" looking suspicious, that's exactly what you did when you claimed doctor.
Echo
In a single sentence:

What strager's been posting are plain facts (reiterating the obvious as explained by BagelBob in his third point), mostly baseless accusations (eg. this post right here, make sure you read previous/next post(s) for context), or blatant coverups of his contradictions (eg. most points in this post).

My vote holds until someone provides a convincing case for strager's behaviour.

That is all.

(edit: found some references)
0_o
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anonymous_old

Echo wrote:

In a single sentence:

What strager's been posting are plain facts (reiterating the obvious as explained by BagelBob in his third point), mostly baseless accusations (eg. this post right here, make sure you read previous/next post(s) for context), or blatant coverups of his contradictions (eg. most points in this post).

My vote holds until someone provides a convincing case for strager's behaviour.

That is all.

(edit: found some references)
I think you're actually supporting me by saying I don't know anything.
anonymous_old

Derekku Chan wrote:

=( It's late and you guys are making fun of me. D:

EDIT: Yeah, I'm not seeing it. *very tired tonight* Hint plz
Read what I quoted from you carefully, and read my response.
Yuukari-Banteki
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anonymous_old
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Yuukari-Banteki
*suppresses rage*

fine if you WANT to get lynched and be emo instead of helping the town and youre BOUND and DETERMINED to do so despite my attempts to save you, go the fuck ahead. I give up on saving you.

unvote
no vote
anonymous_old

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

*suppresses rage*

fine if you WANT to get lynched and be emo instead of helping the town and youre BOUND and DETERMINED to do so despite my attempts to save you, go the fuck ahead. I give up on saving you.

unvote
no vote
I'm not saying your vote is right or wrong. I'm just saying it's without real reason or justification, and it's better to have a convincing argument behind your vote.
Yuukari-Banteki
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anonymous_old

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

im not going to respond until i have cooled down cus right now, strager, your impossible "logic" is pissing me off SO much. This game has ceased to be fun for me when everyone instantly objects to every action i make. I thought my logic was clear-cut but you don't seem to be understanding it despite every attempt on my part to educate you. im completely sick of your idiocy.

maybe im overreacting a bit but i feel like im getting attacked every time i try to help. This is a game, not a war zone. I'll try again tomorrow i guess and see if things have improved then.
I'm really not trying to attack you. I'm just saying "you have no reason from what I see." I'm not demanding an explanation. I see where you are coming from but I don't see that as a real reason from my perspective. That's all.
Derekku

strager wrote:

Derekku Chan wrote:

=( It's late and you guys are making fun of me. D:

EDIT: Yeah, I'm not seeing it. *very tired tonight* Hint plz
Read what I quoted from you carefully, and read my response.
...

*facepalm*

Wow I really am tired tonight...

Also, a bangwagon sounds sexy~
anonymous_old
Votes thus far:

strager: Echo
0_o: adam
adam: strager
Echo: SFG
0_o: -
0_o: SFG
0_o: -
Echo: -
viewtopic.php?p=139863#p139863
SFG: strager
0_o: nardi
Echo: strager
nardi: strager
0_o: -
0_o: adam
Derekku: Echo
viewtopic.php?p=140697#p140697
Echo: -
SFG: -
SFG: Olinad
SFG: -
SFG: strager
SFG: -
SFG: adam
Derekku: -
viewtopic.php?p=141549#p141549
Echo: strager
strager: -
viewtopic.php?p=142229#p142229
Derekku: nardi
SFG: -

(I may have made a mistake or two. Please feel free to correct me.)
anonymous_old
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Yuukari-Banteki
what the fuck you yell at me for my vote and then you yell at me for not changing my vote and now youre yelling at me for changing my vote after you yelled at me for not changing my vote.

i really shouldnt have come back tonight...
anonymous_old
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0_o

strager wrote:

strager wrote:

Echo: SFG
0_o: -
0_o: SFG
0_o: -
Echo: -
Hmm.
I don't know what you are trying to get at here, but these votes were cast for kuwarudo because he was being annoying. I retracted my vote when he claimed townie right before quitting, and Echo retracted his in his next post for the obvious reason that he was replaced by someone who DOESN'T annoy him.
This really should have been obvious...
Echo
SFG's just voting for the person with the highest vote tally apart from me and strager. I don't see anything fishy about that.
adam2046
Neither do I...but it's still meeeeeeee ;_;
nardii
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anonymous_old

nardi11011 wrote:

One thing I don't get: why did strager reveal his role instead of just saying "I was looking at the PM in the OP and was just wondering"?
Because I don't like lying.

0_o wrote:

strager wrote:

strager wrote:

Echo: SFG
0_o: -
0_o: SFG
0_o: -
Echo: -
Hmm.
I don't know what you are trying to get at here, but these votes were cast for kuwarudo because he was being annoying. I retracted my vote when he claimed townie right before quitting, and Echo retracted his in his next post for the obvious reason that he was replaced by someone who DOESN'T annoy him.
This really should have been obvious...
Oh dear you're right. I completely forgot. x_x

Anyway I read somewhere that if the Town doesn't choose to lynch on the first game in a nine-player game with one Mafia the Town gets a statistical advantage, assuming completely random lynching and killing. I'll calculate how this would work with the current setup later.
Yuukari-Banteki

strager wrote:

Anyway I read somewhere that if the Town doesn't choose to lynch on the first game in a nine-player game with one Mafia the Town gets a statistical advantage, assuming completely random lynching and killing. I'll calculate how this would work with the current setup later.

strager wrote:

with one Mafia
read the OP again. There are two Mafia.
anonymous_old

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

strager wrote:

Anyway I read somewhere that if the Town doesn't choose to lynch on the first game in a nine-player game with one Mafia the Town gets a statistical advantage, assuming completely random lynching and killing. I'll calculate how this would work with the current setup later.

strager wrote:

with one Mafia
read the OP again. There are two Mafia.
Read my post again (bold added):

strager wrote:

Anyway I read somewhere that if the Town doesn't choose to lynch on the first game in a nine-player game with one Mafia the Town gets a statistical advantage, assuming completely random lynching and killing. I'll calculate how this would work with the current setup later.
Yuukari-Banteki
oh sorry i can't read. ^^U

bbl making dinnorz (yes, im making dinner at 3:44PM. Guests and such whoooooo)
Echo
You don't need to calculate anything, no lynch on day one is disadvantageous for town.
Yuukari-Banteki
also in retrospect it seems kinda stupid for us to, each Day, roll a n-sided die where n is the number of remaining players and lynch that person off, then expect the mafia to do the same and us to win. takes the entire point out of the game.
anonymous_old

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

also in retrospect it seems kinda stupid for us to, each Day, roll a n-sided die where n is the number of remaining players and lynch that person off, then expect the mafia to do the same and us to win. takes the entire point out of the game.
Of course such calculations ignore the Mafia or aux roles slipping up, but if the probability sways in favor of the Town by not lynching the first day there is likely a better chance of a Town win. (Note the use of maybies and perhapses.)
Yuukari-Banteki
if we don't lynch today, the mafia get a free kill. im starting to really wonder about you, strager.
anonymous_old
Here's what I get with my coding so far:
:!g++ -g mafia.cpp && ./a.out
Setup:
Mafia:
Normal: 2
Role blocker: 0
Town:
Normal: 9
Doctor: 0
Mafia wins 64.790765% of the time with lynch on Day 1
Mafia wins 78.437500% of the time with no lynch on Day 1
Still need to code the Doctor in and the Role Blocker too. Cop is ignored and I probably won't code him because he doesn't really do anything to sway the statistics except in claims and investigations and things, which are human factors.
anonymous_old
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anonymous_old
Final results;
:!for players in MRCDTTTTT MRTTTTTTT MMCTTTTTT MMDTTTTTT; do ./a.out $players; echo; done
Setup:
Mafia:
Normal: 1
Role blocker: 1
Town:
Normal: 6
Doctor: 1

Mafia wins 57.069781% of the time with lynch on Day 1
Mafia wins 65.034042% of the time with no lynch on Day 1

Setup:
Mafia:
Normal: 1
Role blocker: 1
Town:
Normal: 7
Doctor: 0

Mafia wins 70.158730% of the time with lynch on Day 1
Mafia wins 84.375000% of the time with no lynch on Day 1

Setup:
Mafia:
Normal: 2
Role blocker: 0
Town:
Normal: 7
Doctor: 0

Mafia wins 70.158730% of the time with lynch on Day 1
Mafia wins 84.375000% of the time with no lynch on Day 1

Setup:
Mafia:
Normal: 2
Role blocker: 0
Town:
Normal: 6
Doctor: 1

Mafia wins 54.693878% of the time with lynch on Day 1
Mafia wins 61.345564% of the time with no lynch on Day 1

So I guess it is bad for us not to lynch on the first day.

Source code:
#include <cstdio>

struct Players
{
enum { NumRoles = 4, NumMafiaRoles = 2, NumTownRoles = 2 };

union
{
struct
{
int mafiaNormal, mafiaRoleBlocker;
int townNormal, townDoctor;
};

struct
{
int mafiaRoles[NumMafiaRoles];
int townRoles[NumTownRoles];
};

int roles[NumRoles];
};

Players()
{
for(int i = 0; i < NumRoles; ++i)
roles[i] = 0;
}

int town() const
{
return townNormal + townDoctor;
}

int mafia() const
{
return mafiaNormal + mafiaRoleBlocker;
}

int total() const
{
return town() + mafia();
}
};

/* 1 = Mafia win; 0 = Town win. */
double checkPossibilities(Players players, bool lynch = true)
{
if(players.town() <= players.mafia())
return 1;

if(players.mafia() == 0)
return 0;

if(lynch)
{
double prob = 0;

for(int role = 0; role < Players::NumRoles; ++role)
{
if(players.roles[role] == 0)
continue;

double weight = (double)players.roles[role] / players.total();

Players newPlayers = players;
--newPlayers.roles[role];

prob += weight * checkPossibilities(newPlayers, false);
}

return prob;
}

/* Handle kills. */
double prob = 0;

for(int townRole = 0; townRole < Players::NumTownRoles; ++townRole)
{
if(players.townRoles[townRole] == 0)
continue;

double weight = (double)players.townRoles[townRole] / players.town();

if(townRole != 1) /* Doctor can't defend himself. */
{
weight *= 1 - (double)players.townDoctor / (players.total() - 1) /* Doctor(s) defends at random. */
* (1 - (double)players.mafiaRoleBlocker / (players.town())); /* Role blocker(s) block Doctor at random. */
}

Players newPlayers = players;
--newPlayers.townRoles[townRole];

prob += weight * checkPossibilities(newPlayers, true);
}

return prob;
}

Players playersFromString(const char *playerString)
{
Players players;

for(/* */; *playerString; ++playerString)
{
switch(*playerString)
{
case 'T':
case 'C':
++players.townNormal;
break;

case 'D':
++players.townDoctor;
break;

case 'M':
++players.mafiaNormal;
break;

case 'R':
++players.mafiaRoleBlocker;
break;
}
}

return players;
}

int main(int argc, char **argv)
{
if(argc != 2)
{
fprintf(stderr, "Argument must be string of players (_M_afia, _R_ole blocker, _T_own, _C_op, _D_octor) e.g. MDTTTTTTT\n");
return 1;
}

Players players = playersFromString(argv[1]);

printf("Setup:\n");

printf("\tMafia:\n");
printf("\t\tNormal: %d\n", players.mafiaNormal);
printf("\t\tRole blocker: %d\n", players.mafiaRoleBlocker);

printf("\tTown:\n");
printf("\t\tNormal: %d\n", players.townNormal);
printf("\t\tDoctor: %d\n", players.townDoctor);

printf("\n");

printf("Mafia wins %f%% of the time with lynch on Day 1\n", checkPossibilities(players, true) * 100);
printf("Mafia wins %f%% of the time with no lynch on Day 1\n", checkPossibilities(players, false) * 100);

return 0;
}
BagelBob_old

strager wrote:

nardi11011 wrote:

One thing I don't get: why did strager reveal his role instead of just saying "I was looking at the PM in the OP and was just wondering"?
Because I don't like lying.
I call BS, you meant to claim your roll. I was in the IRC with you before the game started. You could have sent your question as a PM to Suburu. You could have easily said that you were just curious. While lies generally do not help the town, the doctor role-claiming on the first day is worse.

Also, why are you ignoring these two posts?

Neither of those two pieces of code deals with our set-up. Why are you wasting time with things that don't apply? You can code all day, but when you get down to it, we aren't lynching someone at random. All that code does is consume time and block discussion.
Derekku
strager, are you NOT fucking listening? There's no point in coding over 9000 lines of code. No lynch day 1 = Free kill for mafia.

Should we also NOT lynch day 2? Day 3? :evil:

Like SFG said, I'm starting to wonder about you, strager :|
anonymous_old

Derekku Chan wrote:

strager, are you NOT fucking listening? There's no point in coding over 9000 lines of code. No lynch day 1 = Free kill for mafia.

Should we also NOT lynch day 2? Day 3? :evil:

Like SFG said, I'm starting to wonder about you, strager :|
Read what I wrote:

strager wrote:

Saturos-fangirl wrote:

if we don't lynch today, the mafia get a free kill. im starting to really wonder about you, strager.
That may be true, but with eight players total and one Mafia you'll observe:
:!g++ -g mafia.cpp && ./a.out
Setup:
Mafia:
Normal: 1
Role blocker: 0
Town:
Normal: 7
Doctor: 0
Mafia wins 54.687500% of the time with lynch on Day 1
Mafia wins 45.714286% of the time with no lynch on Day 1
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