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By the time nardi voted for you, strager, two other people had voted for you. He seemed to only vote for you because you were the "most suspicious", which isn't a good reason imo.strager wrote:
What bangwagon? ;P
I meant in the case that nardi's vote WAS a random vote, which I don't think it was, but I wanted to cover that groundstrager wrote:
No one's random vote was explicitly denoted as a random vote by the voter, either.
On the bandwagon against strager? I've already stated many times that I believe strager isn't mafia. :/adam2046 wrote:
The only person jumping strager's bangwagon is Derek.
nardi's vote was not random because he stated he had a general idea and that strager seemed suspicious.strager wrote:
What bangwagon? ;PDerekku Chan wrote:
Both olinad and nardi have both pretty much contributed NOTHING to this topic's discussion.
BUThe was quick to jump on the bangwagon and vote for strager without any reasoning or proof.nardi11011 wrote:
It's annoying that 90% of the posts in mafia/ww game threads are made when I'm either asleep or at school. Anyway, I vote strager as he seems the most suspicious to me and this game is confusing as hell compared to WWG.
I have to agree but as a Mafia why would he do this at L-2 and not L-1? (I asked BagelBob this in my last "real" post.)Because no one accused it of not being a random vote? He was never attacked so he wouldn't defend himself. If he did defend himself in advanced that'd looks suspicious because it'd seem as if he had something to hide.nardi11011 wrote:
I'm not even counting that as a "random" vote because he hasn't even come back to say otherwise.
No one's random vote was explicitly denoted as a random vote by the voter, either.
So I don't really see your reasoning here Derekku.
I think you're actually supporting me by saying I don't know anything.Echo wrote:
In a single sentence:
What strager's been posting are plain facts (reiterating the obvious as explained by BagelBob in his third point), mostly baseless accusations (eg. this post right here, make sure you read previous/next post(s) for context), or blatant coverups of his contradictions (eg. most points in this post).
My vote holds until someone provides a convincing case for strager's behaviour.
That is all.
(edit: found some references)
Read what I quoted from you carefully, and read my response.Derekku Chan wrote:
=( It's late and you guys are making fun of me. D:
EDIT: Yeah, I'm not seeing it. *very tired tonight* Hint plz
I'm not saying your vote is right or wrong. I'm just saying it's without real reason or justification, and it's better to have a convincing argument behind your vote.Saturos-fangirl wrote:
*suppresses rage*
fine if you WANT to get lynched and be emo instead of helping the town and youre BOUND and DETERMINED to do so despite my attempts to save you, go the fuck ahead. I give up on saving you.
unvote
no vote
I'm really not trying to attack you. I'm just saying "you have no reason from what I see." I'm not demanding an explanation. I see where you are coming from but I don't see that as a real reason from my perspective. That's all.Saturos-fangirl wrote:
im not going to respond until i have cooled down cus right now, strager, your impossible "logic" is pissing me off SO much. This game has ceased to be fun for me when everyone instantly objects to every action i make. I thought my logic was clear-cut but you don't seem to be understanding it despite every attempt on my part to educate you. im completely sick of your idiocy.
maybe im overreacting a bit but i feel like im getting attacked every time i try to help. This is a game, not a war zone. I'll try again tomorrow i guess and see if things have improved then.
...strager wrote:
Read what I quoted from you carefully, and read my response.Derekku Chan wrote:
=( It's late and you guys are making fun of me. D:
EDIT: Yeah, I'm not seeing it. *very tired tonight* Hint plz
I don't know what you are trying to get at here, but these votes were cast for kuwarudo because he was being annoying. I retracted my vote when he claimed townie right before quitting, and Echo retracted his in his next post for the obvious reason that he was replaced by someone who DOESN'T annoy him.strager wrote:
Hmm.strager wrote:
Echo: SFG
0_o: -
0_o: SFG
0_o: -
Echo: -
Because I don't like lying.nardi11011 wrote:
One thing I don't get: why did strager reveal his role instead of just saying "I was looking at the PM in the OP and was just wondering"?
Oh dear you're right. I completely forgot. x_x0_o wrote:
I don't know what you are trying to get at here, but these votes were cast for kuwarudo because he was being annoying. I retracted my vote when he claimed townie right before quitting, and Echo retracted his in his next post for the obvious reason that he was replaced by someone who DOESN'T annoy him.strager wrote:
Hmm.strager wrote:
Echo: SFG
0_o: -
0_o: SFG
0_o: -
Echo: -
This really should have been obvious...
strager wrote:
Anyway I read somewhere that if the Town doesn't choose to lynch on the first game in a nine-player game with one Mafia the Town gets a statistical advantage, assuming completely random lynching and killing. I'll calculate how this would work with the current setup later.
read the OP again. There are two Mafia.strager wrote:
with one Mafia
Read my post again (bold added):Saturos-fangirl wrote:
strager wrote:
Anyway I read somewhere that if the Town doesn't choose to lynch on the first game in a nine-player game with one Mafia the Town gets a statistical advantage, assuming completely random lynching and killing. I'll calculate how this would work with the current setup later.read the OP again. There are two Mafia.strager wrote:
with one Mafia
strager wrote:
Anyway I read somewhere that if the Town doesn't choose to lynch on the first game in a nine-player game with one Mafia the Town gets a statistical advantage, assuming completely random lynching and killing. I'll calculate how this would work with the current setup later.
Of course such calculations ignore the Mafia or aux roles slipping up, but if the probability sways in favor of the Town by not lynching the first day there is likely a better chance of a Town win. (Note the use of maybies and perhapses.)Saturos-fangirl wrote:
also in retrospect it seems kinda stupid for us to, each Day, roll a n-sided die where n is the number of remaining players and lynch that person off, then expect the mafia to do the same and us to win. takes the entire point out of the game.
:!g++ -g mafia.cpp && ./a.outStill need to code the Doctor in and the Role Blocker too. Cop is ignored and I probably won't code him because he doesn't really do anything to sway the statistics except in claims and investigations and things, which are human factors.
Setup:
Mafia:
Normal: 2
Role blocker: 0
Town:
Normal: 9
Doctor: 0
Mafia wins 64.790765% of the time with lynch on Day 1
Mafia wins 78.437500% of the time with no lynch on Day 1
:!for players in MRCDTTTTT MRTTTTTTT MMCTTTTTT MMDTTTTTT; do ./a.out $players; echo; done
Setup:
Mafia:
Normal: 1
Role blocker: 1
Town:
Normal: 6
Doctor: 1
Mafia wins 57.069781% of the time with lynch on Day 1
Mafia wins 65.034042% of the time with no lynch on Day 1
Setup:
Mafia:
Normal: 1
Role blocker: 1
Town:
Normal: 7
Doctor: 0
Mafia wins 70.158730% of the time with lynch on Day 1
Mafia wins 84.375000% of the time with no lynch on Day 1
Setup:
Mafia:
Normal: 2
Role blocker: 0
Town:
Normal: 7
Doctor: 0
Mafia wins 70.158730% of the time with lynch on Day 1
Mafia wins 84.375000% of the time with no lynch on Day 1
Setup:
Mafia:
Normal: 2
Role blocker: 0
Town:
Normal: 6
Doctor: 1
Mafia wins 54.693878% of the time with lynch on Day 1
Mafia wins 61.345564% of the time with no lynch on Day 1
#include <cstdio>
struct Players
{
enum { NumRoles = 4, NumMafiaRoles = 2, NumTownRoles = 2 };
union
{
struct
{
int mafiaNormal, mafiaRoleBlocker;
int townNormal, townDoctor;
};
struct
{
int mafiaRoles[NumMafiaRoles];
int townRoles[NumTownRoles];
};
int roles[NumRoles];
};
Players()
{
for(int i = 0; i < NumRoles; ++i)
roles[i] = 0;
}
int town() const
{
return townNormal + townDoctor;
}
int mafia() const
{
return mafiaNormal + mafiaRoleBlocker;
}
int total() const
{
return town() + mafia();
}
};
/* 1 = Mafia win; 0 = Town win. */
double checkPossibilities(Players players, bool lynch = true)
{
if(players.town() <= players.mafia())
return 1;
if(players.mafia() == 0)
return 0;
if(lynch)
{
double prob = 0;
for(int role = 0; role < Players::NumRoles; ++role)
{
if(players.roles[role] == 0)
continue;
double weight = (double)players.roles[role] / players.total();
Players newPlayers = players;
--newPlayers.roles[role];
prob += weight * checkPossibilities(newPlayers, false);
}
return prob;
}
/* Handle kills. */
double prob = 0;
for(int townRole = 0; townRole < Players::NumTownRoles; ++townRole)
{
if(players.townRoles[townRole] == 0)
continue;
double weight = (double)players.townRoles[townRole] / players.town();
if(townRole != 1) /* Doctor can't defend himself. */
{
weight *= 1 - (double)players.townDoctor / (players.total() - 1) /* Doctor(s) defends at random. */
* (1 - (double)players.mafiaRoleBlocker / (players.town())); /* Role blocker(s) block Doctor at random. */
}
Players newPlayers = players;
--newPlayers.townRoles[townRole];
prob += weight * checkPossibilities(newPlayers, true);
}
return prob;
}
Players playersFromString(const char *playerString)
{
Players players;
for(/* */; *playerString; ++playerString)
{
switch(*playerString)
{
case 'T':
case 'C':
++players.townNormal;
break;
case 'D':
++players.townDoctor;
break;
case 'M':
++players.mafiaNormal;
break;
case 'R':
++players.mafiaRoleBlocker;
break;
}
}
return players;
}
int main(int argc, char **argv)
{
if(argc != 2)
{
fprintf(stderr, "Argument must be string of players (_M_afia, _R_ole blocker, _T_own, _C_op, _D_octor) e.g. MDTTTTTTT\n");
return 1;
}
Players players = playersFromString(argv[1]);
printf("Setup:\n");
printf("\tMafia:\n");
printf("\t\tNormal: %d\n", players.mafiaNormal);
printf("\t\tRole blocker: %d\n", players.mafiaRoleBlocker);
printf("\tTown:\n");
printf("\t\tNormal: %d\n", players.townNormal);
printf("\t\tDoctor: %d\n", players.townDoctor);
printf("\n");
printf("Mafia wins %f%% of the time with lynch on Day 1\n", checkPossibilities(players, true) * 100);
printf("Mafia wins %f%% of the time with no lynch on Day 1\n", checkPossibilities(players, false) * 100);
return 0;
}
I call BS, you meant to claim your roll. I was in the IRC with you before the game started. You could have sent your question as a PM to Suburu. You could have easily said that you were just curious. While lies generally do not help the town, the doctor role-claiming on the first day is worse.strager wrote:
Because I don't like lying.nardi11011 wrote:
One thing I don't get: why did strager reveal his role instead of just saying "I was looking at the PM in the OP and was just wondering"?
Read what I wrote:Derekku Chan wrote:
strager, are you NOT fucking listening? There's no point in coding over 9000 lines of code. No lynch day 1 = Free kill for mafia.
Should we also NOT lynch day 2? Day 3?
Like SFG said, I'm starting to wonder about you, strager
strager wrote:
That may be true, but with eight players total and one Mafia you'll observe:Saturos-fangirl wrote:
if we don't lynch today, the mafia get a free kill. im starting to really wonder about you, strager.:!g++ -g mafia.cpp && ./a.out
Setup:
Mafia:
Normal: 1
Role blocker: 0
Town:
Normal: 7
Doctor: 0
Mafia wins 54.687500% of the time with lynch on Day 1
Mafia wins 45.714286% of the time with no lynch on Day 1